Food for electoral thoughts

Government shutdown with fries\nElection Day is approaching, and despite what people say, Election 2000 will mean significant changes. The economy has taken away vital issues from the parties, but differences still exist.\nWell, somewhat. Right now, President Bill Clinton, desperate to seize Congress back from the Republicans, is trying to manufacture a "budget crisis" over petty disputes. Longing for the good ol' days of the government shutdown, Clinton cites a "pay raise" he objects to. \nIt could backfire. When things are running smoothly, voters don't want to hear about details. Gone are the days when Clinton and the White House could fight over "deficits" and "spending." Clinton's last-minute attack is why he remains a major thorn in the side of Gore. \nCrocodiles for Nader\nPoor Ralph Nader. He needs 5 percent of the vote to win the Green Party federal matching funds next time around. Fearful liberals and Democrats are "swapping" votes between Nader and Gore, trying to give Nader most of his votes in safe "Bush states." Nader's people oppose "Nader trader" Web sites, and fair-weather Naderites are fooling themselves. \nThe Democrats won't cry if the Green Party fails. Green Party candidates have already cost Democrats in New Mexico and threaten them elsewhere. The Democrats hope only the Libertarians and Reform parties remain as notable third parties. They draw votes from the Republicans.\nHoosier Democrats would be panic-stricken if the Green Party ever gets automatic ballot access for their candidates. That would give the liberal base of the Democrats an alternative in every race. (That can only happen if they trigger an archaic Indiana law by getting 2 percent of the vote in the Indiana Secretary of State race.)\nIndiana GOP woes\nIn Indiana, Republicans in Indianapolis struggle to lift all their ships with a GOP tide. That could happen with Bush and Senator Dick Lugar at the top of Indiana ballots.\nThe last time Republicans swept the state during a presidential/gubernatorial year was 1984. In 1988, Evan Bayh won governor -- after two untested years as Secretary of State -- during an intensely Republican year that swept in George Bush. The Republicans haven't won the governors office since then.\nTherefore, some commentators are questioning Indiana's status as a Republican state. A local talk show host noted Indiana might be about to elect a Democrat as governor for four straight terms. He also noted Indiana has a 53-47 Democratic majority in the State House of Representatives and incorrectly stated a majority of Indiana's Congressional delegation is Democratic.\nRepublican state chairman Mike McDaniel notes that even in 1998, more Hoosiers cast votes for a Republican state representative than a Democratic one. Many Republicans, especially content Indianapolis Republicans, are crammed into safe districts. Were they spread out, Indiana would probably have a GOP State House as well as the 31-19 State Senate majority they now enjoy.\nAlso, Indiana Republicans have the current Congressional delegation majority, six to four. In 1992, after a political mini-depression, Indiana Republicans were doomed with a mere two Republican representatives (Dan Burton and John Myers). But, after 1992 and 1994 the Indiana GOP picked up four more seats from the Democrats, knocking off three incumbents (Frank McCloskey, Jill Long, and Jim Jontz) and seizing a 1994 open seat (that of Phil Sharp). The Republicans haven't lost any of the four statewide offices elected in the mid-term elections.\nKeeping those seats is crucial, but even that wouldn't change Indiana's status as a moderate-conservative state that leans Republican. Congressman David McIntosh, the former Reagan aide, might not best incumbent Gov. Frank O'Bannon and might have been caught off-guard by the governor's political use of the state gas sales tax suspension. But that is a long way from Indiana existing as a state Al Gore can depend on.