IU reacts to recall appeal

IU students and faculty reacted strongly to the announcement Monday that a federal appeals court had ordered California officials to halt preparations for the gubernatorial recall election, originally slated for Oct. 7.\nMichael Ensley, a professor in IU's political science department, said the delay may actually help the Republican party because it would give them more time to focus their campaign efforts on one candidate.\n"The vote against Davis and the Democratic party would most likely be split between State Sen. McClintock and Arnold Schwarzenegger. It is unlikely the Republican voters and independents that support the recall would coordinate on one of these candidates if the election were held in October," Ensley said in an e-mail. "However, if the election is delayed, the Republican party may be able to convince one of their candidates to step out of the race, which clearly increases their chances of taking back the governorship." \nOn the other hand, Ensley also pointed out the delay could work in favor of the Democrats.\n"Turnout will likely be higher in the March primaries, which would most likely help the Democrats since California clearly favors the Democratic party," he said. "Further, since the economy seems to be improving, the delay may improve citizens' perceptions of the Davis tenure in office."\nIU College Republicans President Angel M. Rivera said he believes a federal court should never interfere with a state's decision.\n"This decision reflects poorly on the Democratic party," Rivera said. "They'll do anything to win, include doing things that are wrong -- and this decision is wrong."\nThe IU College Democrats were unavailable for comment.\nA three-judge panel on the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals said California needs to upgrade its voting equipment before the recall election should proceed, citing concerns about a "hurried, constitutionally infirm" procedure.\nThe legal battle over Florida ballots in the 2000 election, which allowed Bush to win the White House by a tiny margin over former Vice President Al Gore, was repeatedly cited by the court in its decision. \nHistorically, the 9th Circuit has a reputation as being one of the most liberal appellate courts in the federal judiciary and its decisions have often been reversed by the U.S. Supreme Court in the past. \n"The problem is who made the decision," Rivera said. "The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in California is a disaster. It's the same court of appeals that said we couldn't say God in the pledge of allegiance -- the same court that made so many bad decisions."\nThe decision to delay the recall was encouraging for California Democrats and Gov. Gary Davis who has been fiercely battling Republicans' efforts to oust him.\nInitially, Gov. Davis had asked state courts to delay the recall vote until March 2004, when a strong Democratic turnout is expected at the polls for California's presidential primary elections. \nRivera said he fears delaying the recall could change the outcome of the election. \n"Delaying the recall could really cripple the current momentum against Gov. Davis and change the outcome of the whole election," he said. "The momentum might subside a little bit."\nDespite these predictions, however, professor Ensley said he thinks the delay will have a minimal impact on the Democratic and Republican parties and is more likely to sway independent voters. \n"The only meaningful effect I envision would be on independent voters in California," he said. "They may be turned off by the partisan bickering. Republican and Democratic identifiers tend to view such events through their own partisan lens and would blame the other party for the problems and partisan politics."\nPolitical science professor Gerald Wright said the outcome of the recall will be very difficult to predict.\n"The situation is really fluid right now," Wright said. "It depends a lot on how Gov. Davis is able to defend himself. He's in a terrible circumstance right now. The economy is in really bad shape, and people are angry about it. California is a very polarized state right now." \nEnsley said he thinks Gov. Davis has done a good job handling the difficult and unfamiliar situation. \n"My advice to Davis would be to focus on the future and try to present comprehensive plans for the helping the state with its difficulties," Ensley said. "He should move away from partisan bickering and attempting to assign blame for previous problems of the state. I believe a delay in the election would help him in this regard."\nThe 9th Circuit Court announced Tuesday that it might hold another hearing with more judges on the decision original decision made by three judges. If the San Francisco-based court sustains the original ruling, those who want the election to be held on Oct. 7 are likely to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.\nRivera said he believes the federal courts should not interfere with the state court's decisions. \n"We, as Republicans, believe in states' rights, and the California people should have the right to decide about their own state politics," Rivera said. \nIf the state follows the standard appeals process and requests that all judges sitting on the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals hear the case, then the U.S. Supreme Court may be reluctant to take action.\nOverall, Ensley said he thinks both parties should be careful to avoid appearing obstructionist to the recall process.\n"If either party appears to be intentionally trying to delay the democratic process, this may have a negative backlash against the party," he said. "This was an issue for the Republicans in 2000 in party and Bush's brother controlled the state government."\n-- Contact staff writer Andrea Minarcek at aminarce@indiana.edu.