Professors discuss historical significance, Bush's 2004 election hopes

As the national news media has rushed to make predictions about the effects of Saturday's arrest of Saddam Hussein, IU professors are making speculations of their own concerning the future of America's involvement in Iraq and its effects on the upcoming election in 2004.\nStephen Katz, director of undergraduate studies in the Near Eastern Languages and Cultures department, said he thinks the capture will yield mixed results for the United States in Iraq. \nKatz said it is a good morale booster, but it won't solve the problem of the daily terrorist hits against American soldiers.\n"It might eventually cause the terrorists to back off, but many of them are against American occupation and not so much trying to restore the regime of Saddam Hussein," he said. "It might bring many more Iraqis to see that the U.S. is sincerely looking to help them."\nHowever, Katz said the Iraqi people are fighting for freedom against a "western superpower," and they are looking for a resolution to the American presence in Iraq as soon as possible, whereas the U.S. is looking to make more of a democratic, pluralistic society.\n"So the U.S is still in a bind here," he said.\nHistory Professor Eric Sandweiss said he believes the capture will boost American morale. \n"There's a tremendous need to have a face and a particular personality to attach to our cause, to strengthen support, especially for such a vaguely articulated war," Sandweiss said. \n"I think thecapture of Hussein will be tremendously useful to people seeking to garner support for the American war effort."\nSandweiss said he believes people opposed to the principle of war are not likely to change their opinion, but for those seeking a "tangible" reason behind the war in Iraq, the capture of Saddam Hussein will be their answer.\nPolitical Science Professor Michael McGinnis said the capture of Hussein could also potentially affect the international perception of America's involvement in Iraq. \n"What might make a difference is if this capture actually leads to finding the weapons of mass destruction or to a fundamental change in the attitudes of the Iraqi people," McGinnis said. "The capture itself won't make that much of a difference, but it might lead to a change of events that might make a more significant difference in the international perception of how America has handled the situation in Iraq."\nMcGinnis said he thinks the capture might also boost Bush's popularity, at least in the short term. \n"It depends on how the administration handles Hussein now, but it will certainly help President Bush garner support now," McGinnis said. "As for the long term, the presidential election is too far away and there is too much time for the economy to change and to alter the situation for this capture to have much of an effect." \nBut Katz said he believes the capture could be very beneficial to President Bush's reelection campaign. \n"If President Bush can resolve the issues of the American presence in Iraq and the American economy, then he will have the election clinched," Katz said. "With this capture, he will have taken the wind out of the sails of the Democratic party, especially Howard Dean, because he was against the American presence in Iraq from the start." \nKatz said he thinks President Bush's national address Sunday "lacked substance." \n"It was very nice and encouraging of our troops, which is important, but it lacked anything about what is the next step," Katz said. "I expected him to use this as an opportunity to set some kind of target with a mission to resolve the creation of an interim government -- something more that would be in the hands of the Iraqis, a self-government apparatus, to lead to the retreat of American soldiers in the streets of Iraq. But instead, he was vague." \nProfessor McGinnis also said he is unsure how the administration will handle Hussein now that he is in custody. \n"I'm not confident that the administration will handle this situation with the kind of care that they should," McGinnis said. "Their past decisions with handling these types of situations makes me doubtful. This is a case where it would be nice if we had the international criminal court in place, but the current administration has always been against a body like that. This is the type of situation that might make the current administration realize how helpful an international court like that would be." \nKatz said he predicts a highly publicized trial for Hussein.\n"He will be brought to account for his deeds of the last decades, especially the mass murders of hundreds of thousands of innocent people," he said, "and for that, he will have to be ready to pay"