IU professors analyze state of Iraq prior to Sunday's elections

Two days are left until Iraqis go to the polls Sunday. Hopes, frustrations and concerns abound as the election nears. Iraqis will have the chance to choose from among more than 120 parties running for seats in the yet-to-be-created Transitional National Assembly.\nThe election comes as insurgents continue to wage a protracted rebellion against the multinational forces in Iraq and the current interim government, various factions threatening to sabotage or boycott the election process.\nPolitical Science Professor Jeffrey Hart said there are concerns about how representative the upcoming election will be and its perceived legitimacy among Sunni Muslims.\n"The Sunnis are going to be underrepresented if there are boycotts, and that will have to be rectified if Iraq is to maintain a unified state," he said.\nSunni leaders have been at the helm of power in Iraq since the country's inception but are expected to be dislodged from state leadership by the Shiites, who comprise 60 percent of the country's population. Sunnis make up 20 percent of the population. Despite the Sunnis' fall from power, Hart said he believed Iraq's new government -- likely led by a Shiite majority -- will be eager to see Sunnis actively represented in the government.\n"The Shiites in Iraq have attempted to portray themselves as moderates unlikely to adopt a theocratic system similar to Iran," Hart said. "Given all the stakes of the various actors, including the U.S., the Shiites will likely move in that direction."\nPolitical Science Professor Karen Rasler, who studies international conflict, similarly argued that it would be to the advantage of Shiite leaders to form a representative government. \n"The Shiite leadership is very much aware of the need to incorporate the Sunni voice and leaders into the new regime to avoid a protracted conflict," she said.\nSunday's election is slated to select 275 members who will make up the Transitional National Assembly. The Assembly is charged with writing a new Iraqi constitution that will be brought to a national referendum on Oct. 15. If the constitution is voted down, the Assembly is dissolved and the proposed constitution scrapped. National Assembly elections would be repeated, along with the constitutional write-up. Upon approval of the constitution, general elections will be scheduled and a new government formed. Assembly representatives from both the transitional and permanent government will select a president and two vice presidents who will in turn select a prime minister.\nHart said despite some security concerns and political uncertainty, the elections could be an important step in Iraq's democratic experiment. \n"The idealism of the Iraq electorate may bring a certain legitimacy that carries forth from the mere fact that they have a chance to exercise a vote after all these years," he said.\nPolitical Science Professor Emeritus Illya Harik said he questioned the timing of the elections and the insistence of the United States that the elections be held amid the ongoing violence.\n"The elections are taking place under unusual circumstances," he said. "Obviously they are not going to be representative or produce a stable government. It is not surprising if it will end up in a civil war, which is not warranted, because ... between the Sunnis and Shiites there has been tensions and strong feelings of identity, but \nnever war." \n-- Contact Staff Writer Rami Chami at rchami@indiana.edu.