Sharon stroke leaves Israel at pivotal crossroad

When Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon suffered a massive stroke Jan. 4, the future of Israeli politics was thrown into turmoil and the new election offers Israel a choice between two different ways to deal with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, experts say.\nSharon survived the stroke, but his doctors said that because of brain damage, he would be unable to serve as prime minister again, according to The Associated Press.\nFor most of his political life, Sharon has been a member of the Likud Party, the main conservative party in Israel. Last year, though, he proposed a controversial disengagement plan to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and parts of the West Bank, according to the AP.\nMany members of the Likud Party objected, and Sharon formed a centrist party called Kadima. With Sharon leading Kadima, the party was almost assured to win the next election, said Neil Lazarus, who gives seminars about Israel and has worked for the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs. But with its new leader, Ehud Olmert, a victory is less certain.\nThe next election will be a choice between the Likud party, which is against trading land for peace, and the Kadima party, which favors the disengagement plan as the best way to secure Israel, Lazarus said.\nThe problem facing the Kadima party is that it was "the personal party" of Sharon and not a political party, Lazarus said. For Kadima to win the next election, Olmert must turn it into a viable political party.\nBut according to a poll for the Haartz newspaper in Israel, Kadima is still favored to win the next election even without Sharon, and the majority of the population supports the disengagement plan.\nThe main difference between Kadima and Likud is their acceptance of the disengagement plan and their policy toward the Palestinians, said Dina Spechler, IU associate professor of political science.\nEven though the next election will be a choice between two different Israeli approaches to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, some on both sides say the conflict will not be solved regardless of the election results.\nCurrently, parts of the West Bank are behind the security wall that separates it from Israel, and only if Israel completely withdraws from the West Bank will peace be possible, said Zaineb Istrabadi, Associate Director and Outreach Coordinator of the Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies Program at IU. \n"I don't believe that the (Israeli) government wants to make peace with the Palestinians on equal footing," she said.\nBut for Sharon, the disengagement plan and the security wall were not about making peace, but about creating security, Spechler said.\n"Because of the chaos of Palestine, even those who support the withdrawal see not much will happen," she added. \nFor many years, the Fatah party has governed Palestinians, but later this month they will hold elections, and Fatah is facing a major challenge from Hamas, according to the AP.\nHamas does not recognize Israel's right to exist and has committed to its destruction, according to the AP. Only when Israel has a partner it can negotiate with will the conflict end, Spechler said.\nIf a plan for peace does emerge, some have argued the loss of Sharon could prove disastrous because he could be the only Israeli politician who had the power and credibility to get the plan enacted.\nBut Lazarus disagrees. Sharon was definitely a powerful politician, he said, but if Kadima wins a large enough majority, it will be able to push through a controversial plan as well.\n"It's not about personalities, it's about policy," Istrabadi said.