State Department survey finds low support for U.S. among Iraq's youth

WASHINGTON -- Majorities of Iraqi youth in Arab regions of the country believe security would improve and violence decrease if the U.S.-led forces left immediately, according to a State Department poll that provides a window into the grim warnings provided to policymakers.\nThe survey -- unclassified but marked "For Official U.S. Government Use Only" -- also finds that Iraqi leaders might face particular difficulty recruiting young Sunni Arabs to join the stumbling security forces. Strong majorities of 15- to 29-year-olds in two Arab Sunni areas -- Mosul and Tikrit-Baquba -- would oppose joining the Iraqi army or police.\nThe poll has its shortcomings; regional samples are small and the results do not say how many people refused to respond to questions. The private polling firm that the State Department hired also was not able to interview residents of al-Anbar, a Sunni-dominated province and an insurgent stronghold.\nBut the findings of the summer survey -- circulated to policymakers last month and obtained by The Associated Press last week -- nevertheless provide a solemn reminder of the difficulty that the U.S.-backed Iraqi government faces as it tries to add ethnic diversity to its security institutions.\nAs Iraqi leaders try to diversify the ethnic and religious backgrounds of their security forces, the department's opinion analysis said that Arab Sunnis might be particularly hard to recruit.\nIn Arab Sunni areas, "confidence in the Iraqi army and police is low, and majorities oppose enlisting in either force," the analysis said. "Even recruitment in Arab Shia areas could present challenges as sizable numbers of local youth express support" for local militias, "thus clouding the issue of loyalty to national forces."\nThe analysis was headlined "Youth In Iraq's Arab Sunni Regions Not Eager to Enlist in National Army, Police" and highlighted views from those areas.\nYet in its assessment of the broader picture for Iraq, which includes Kurds and Arab Shiites, there were pieces of good news: A majority of young Iraqis would be willing to join the security forces or support a family member who did, the survey found.\nOn Thursday, Maj. Gen. William B. Caldwell, a U.S. military spokesman in Baghdad, said a two-month-old U.S.-Iraqi bid to quell the violence in the Iraqi capital did "not met our overall expectations." Attacks in Baghdad rose by 22 percent in the first three weeks of Ramadan.\n"We are working very closely with the government of Iraq to determine how to best to refocus our efforts," he said.\nThe Bush administration quietly has released findings from previous surveys to highlight increases in political participation or other hopeful signs.\nA State Department spokeswoman, Janelle Hironimus, said poll results are not for public release.\n"Reliable and accurate assessments of international public opinion at any given point in time are important to the work of our embassies abroad and to policymakers in Washington," she said.