Ortega likely to head back to Nicaragua's presidency

MANAGUA, Nicaragua -- Daniel Ortega appeared headed back to the presidency 16 years after a U.S.-backed rebellion helped oust the former Marxist revolutionary, as partial results and the country's top electoral watchdog indicated he had easily defeated four opponents.The Sandinista leader's victory in Sunday's election, if confirmed by final results, would expand the club of leftist Latin American rulers led by Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, who has tried to help his Nicaraguan ally by shipping cheap oil to the energy-starved nation.\nOrtega, who led Nicaragua from 1985-1990, repeatedly has said he no longer is the Marxist revolutionary who fought U.S.-backed Contra rebels in a war that left 30,000 dead and the economy in shambles.\nBut while he has toned down his leftist rhetoric and pledged to continue free-trade policies, the United States remains openly wary of its former Cold War foe. Washington has threatened to withhold aid to the nation, fearing a return to the socialist economic policies of the 1980s.\nThe race has generated intense international interest, including a visit by Oliver North, the former White House aide at the heart of the Iran-Contra controversy. That effort to oust Ortega's Moscow-leaning Sandinista regime created a huge scandal in the United States when it became known that Washington secretly sold arms to Iran and used the money to fund and arm the Contra operation.\nA statistical survey of official results, carried out by the Nicaraguan Civic Group for Ethics and Transparency, gave Ortega 38.5 percent to 29.5 percent for the wealthy banker Eduardo Montealegre.\nThe vote sampling, known as a quick count, had a margin of error of 1.7 percentage points. Ortega's four opponents asked the group to carry out the count because they were concerned that the Supreme Electoral Tribunal was controlled by the Sandinistas.\nOfficially, with 40 percent of all polling stations counted, Ortega had 40 percent of the vote compared to 33 percent for Montealegre. Electoral officials have been slow to announce results, and it was not clear when final count would be available.\nThree other rivals were well behind: Sandinista dissident Edmundo Jarquin, ruling-party candidate Jose Rizo and former Contra rebel Eden Pastora.\nTo win outright and avoid a runoff, Ortega needs just 35 percent of the vote and a 5-point advantage over his closest opponent.\nLate Sunday, Ortega's supporters flooded the streets, setting off celebratory fireworks, waving the party's red-and-black flag and swaying to the candidate's campaign song, set to the tune of John Lennon's "Give Peace a Chance."\nThe U.S. Embassy said it was too soon to "make an overall judgment on the fairness and transparency of the process."\n"We are receiving reports of some anomalies in the electoral process," including polling stations that opened late and closed early, the embassy said.\nBut Roberto Rivas, president of the Supreme Electoral Council, dismissed the U.S. statement.\n"We have promised the Nicaraguan people transparent elections, and that's what we've done," he said. "I think there were enough observers to witness that."\nOrtega, 60, had already made three unsuccessful attempts at re-election. This was his fifth consecutive presidential campaign.\n"Nicaragua wins today," he said after voting, confident of a first-round win.\nMontealegre brushed aside the partial results, saying: "No one has won here. The Nicaraguan people, in a runoff, will determine the next president."\nAt stake are millions of dollars in potential investments, many from foreign companies drawn to Nicaragua by its cheap labor, low crime rates and decision to join the new Central American Free Trade Agreement.\n"We are playing with the stability of the country," said Jose Adan Aguirre, president of the Chamber of Commerce.\nOn election day, Nicaraguans hiked miles through the jungle, paddled canoes down remote rivers and waited under a searing sun to vote.\nOverall the process was peaceful, but many polling stations opened late to long lines. After the polls closed, angry voters pounded on doors, shouting at officials inside to let them in.\nPolls have shown Ortega would have trouble winning a December runoff. While he has a loyal base of support, many voters still have bitter memories of Sandinista rule, in which homes and businesses were seized.\nOrtega insists he has changed. In fact, his vice-presidential candidate was once one of his biggest enemies: Jaime Morales, who served as the spokesman for the Contras.\nAs Sandinista leader, Ortega seized Morales' estate, but they reconciled after Ortega offered to pay Morales for his former home -- now Ortega's campaign headquarters.\nMarvin Lopez, a 46-year-old doctor waiting at the same polling station where Ortega voted, said he feared an Ortega win would bring back uncontrollable inflation and conflict.\n"I don't want to return to a dictatorship, the misery, the abuse of families' rights," he said.\nWaiting at the end of the line was 26-year-old student Gema Amaya Larios, who said she woke at dawn to cast her vote for Ortega, saying: "Everyone else just cares about their own interests."\nAmid fears of fraud, armed soldiers kept guard at polling stations monitored by more than 18,000 observers -- including three former presidents: Jimmy Carter, Peru's Alejandro Toledo and Panama's Nicolas Ardito Barletta.\nIn a veiled reference to the United States and Venezuela, Toledo condemned "any interference, wherever it comes from, whether it be Asia, Europe, North America or Latin America."\nVenezuelan Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel on Sunday accused the United States of "blackmail and pressure to twist this process" in Nicaragua.\nNicaraguan presidents cannot serve two consecutive terms, and President Enrique Bolanos steps down Jan. 10.