Housing, auto layoffs expected to be high as recession looms

WASHINGTON – Hospitals, schools and the assembly line at an airplane factory look like pretty good places to be with a recession looming and unemployment rising. Construction workers, real estate agents and auto workers aren’t expected to fare as well.\nThe startling news that the economy lost 80,000 jobs last month and nearly a quarter-million over the last three months is the starkest signal yet that the country has probably fallen into a recession, with things on the job front expected to get worse.\n“All the indicators suggest that we will see even larger job declines in coming months. Businesses are getting nervous and pulling back,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com.\nWhile the downturn is expected to be short and mild, economists are still forecasting the unemployment rate, which jumped to 5.1 percent in March, will climb much higher before the nation’s job engine sputters back to life.\nEconomists are forecasting a jobless rate that will peak at around 6 percent, but probably not until early next year, several months after the recession is expected to end. Analysts said as many as 2 million people could lose their jobs in the current downturn.\nIn an environment of a sluggish economy and rising unemployment, analysts said there will be some safe harbors where job demand will keep growing. First and foremost in this group will be health care, where the demographics of an aging population mean the demands for medical care will keep rising.\nAlso a bright spot in a generally bleak jobs picture will be education, again driven by the demographics of a rising population of school-age children and students attending colleges, community colleges and trade schools.\nOutside of those areas, the falling value of the dollar against many foreign currencies is helping to power an export boom, which is benefiting farmers and some segments of manufacturing, particularly airplane makers and factories producing various types of heavy machinery where the United States enjoys a competitive edge.\nBut other segments of manufacturing are not faring nearly as well. Domestic automakers have been laying off workers in the face of slumping sales as the weak economy and soaring gasoline prices cut into demand. General Motors and Chrysler reported U.S. sales were down 19 percent in March compared with a year ago, while sales at Ford fell by 14 percent.\nOther manufacturers, such as appliance and furniture makers, have been hurt by the deep downturn in housing. In all, manufacturing lost 48,000 jobs in March, with half of those cuts coming in autos and auto parts.