The race to Oscar nominations

It’s early December, which means we’re coming up on awards season, and all the critics are making their predictions about which films are Oscar contenders.

This year is shaping up to be one of the more competitive races in recent memory, with few movies or actors looking like they will definitely pull away from the competition.

But as close as every category will be, three will have everyone arguing between now and January 22, 2009, when the nominees are announced.

Best Picture

Nominee predictions: “Milk,” “Frost/Nixon,” “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “The Dark Knight,” “Slumdog Millionaire”

Other Possibilities: “WALL-E,” “Doubt,” “Revolutionary Road,” “Australia,” “The Wrestler”

“Milk” is the only lock in this list, gaining universal acclaim for all parties involved in the film’s production. One would think the critical lauding of both “WALL-E” and “The Dark Knight” would make them locks as well, but comic book and animated movies don’t have a track record for winning the award.

However, with its $530 million gross and large Oscar campaign, I can’t see the Academy ignoring “Knight.” “Frost/Nixon” will be helped by Frank Langella’s performance, while “Slumdog Millionaire” will be impossible to leave out as it gains steam in the coming month.

The pre-screening reviews of “Benjamin Button” seem to solidify that it is every bit as good as the trailers, and its epic scope is right down the Academy’s alley.

Best Actor

Nominee Predictions: Sean Penn, Mickey Rourke, Frank Langella, Richard Jenkins, Brad Pitt

Other possibilities: Clint Eastwood, Leonardo DiCaprio, Will Smith

This is the most interesting category this year. The Academy’s favorite actor Penn has emerged as a favorite for his portrayal of Harvey Milk. However, Langella’s ability to make us buy him as President Nixon and Rourke’s amazing comeback from obscurity that parallels his wrestling character make them solid bets as well.

Eastwood almost always finds a way into the race, so don’t count him out for his performance in “Grand Tarino,” but Pitt is due for his first nomination since 1995’s “Tweleve Monkeys,” especially considering the aforementioned buzz for “Button.”  
Jenkins’ solid year should help him be rewarded for his stellar performance in “The Visitor.”

Regarding “Revolutionary Road,” it comes down to how much the voters get wrapped up in the reunion of Kate Winslet and Leo. If they don’t, watching the two bicker over how much life sucks may not be enough to garner a nomination.  

Best Supporting Actor

Nominee Predictions: Heath Ledger, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Robert Downey Jr., Josh Brolin, Michael Sheen

Other possibility: Dev Patel

The ratings for the Academy Awards in 2009 will probably be through the roof for one reason: Heath Ledger. He’s certainly the favorite in this year’s race, and most of the people who saw “The Dark Knight” are hoping he wins.

However, there’s an obstacle to overcome. Out of the seven times an actor has been nominated posthumously, only one (Peter Finch for “Network” in 1975) has actually won the award.

Unfortunately for fans of “Knight,” he has some stiff competition. The Academy has been obsessed with Hoffman, and his role in “Doubt” could further that, while they may be willing to hand the Oscar to Brolin for his peformance in “Milk” to make up for his Best Actor snub in “W” (it’s not his fault the movie sucked). 

It’s becoming more apparent that Downey will get a nom for “Tropic Thunder,” which is richly deserved. His performance was hilarious instead of racist and mocking. Sheen may make it into the category, helped not only by his performance but for his ability to keep up with co-star Langella.

This is one of the most competitive Oscar races in recent memory. The race to the nominations might be even more intriguing than the show itself.

Many will be tuning in mainly to see how “The Dark Knight” fares, but there are plenty other categories up in the air that should keep everyone tuned in, even before the show airs.