Predictable tournament might have unpredictable ending

Who’s the favorite to win this weekend’s Final Four?

Well, you might have better luck throwing four eggs in a basket, drawing one and declaring that team the winner, because frankly, the 2009 edition of the NCAA men’s basketball championship is up for grabs.

Need proof? Just take a look at what happened an hour northeast of Bloomington at Indianapolis’ Lucas Oil Stadium last weekend.

The top-seeded Louisville Cardinals upended – no wait, make that demolished – an Arizona Wildcat team that was the lone dark horse left in a tournament seemingly geared for college basketball’s elite by a jaw-dropping 103-64 margin.

 Later that evening, Michigan State battled defending national champion Kansas for a 67-62 win, setting the stage for a nice Big East-Big Ten showdown.

Problem was, that showdown went off about as well as a dud firework, with Michigan State smothering the fast-paced Cardinals in a solid 64-52 victory. The win provided the Spartans a trip to the Final Four instead of the much-heralded Big East team.

Coming off a Louisville game in which Michigan State coach Tom Izzo cemented his status among the coaching elite, the Spartans will face Jim Calhoun’s Connecticut Huskies in Saturday’s early evening game that seems likely to produce the eventual national champion.

Let’s face it, a UConn win will be awfully impressive because of what will certainly be a Detriot home-court advantage for Michigan State (their campus in East Lansing is only 90 miles away).

A UConn win would show how talented the Huskies are, while a Michigan State win would create a train of momentum that will be awfully hard to stop in Monday night’s championship game.

The teams on the other side of the bracket – North Carolina and Villanova – would probably like to object to that, but I just don’t see them winning. I anticipate that North Carolina, with an experienced Tyler Hansbrough and recovering Ty Lawson, will be ready to break out its usually fast-paced offense in true form after battling in the paint with Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin last Sunday.

Monday night, though, should be a roadblock for the Tar Heels.

One could make a valid argument that a North Carolina-Michigan State championship game could be a repeat of their contest earlier this season.

Back in December, the two teams squared off in the Big Ten-ACC challenge at Ford Field, and the margin was ugly, with the Tar Heels steamrolling to a 98-63 win.

But Michigan State isn’t the same team it was in December, nor is it the same team that barely snuffed the downtrodden Hoosiers in a five-point game at the start of March on Senior Night in Bloomington.

They’re better. A lot better.

But for all we know, Cinderella – or at least one of her evil stepsisters looking to cause some last-minute drama in this tournament – might step in to cause more last-second shots or overtime antics to leave anybody’s championship guess in complete disarray.

And that, to me, might be the best part of this entire weekend.