Despite mild resurgence, GOP in need of soul searching

Claims that the Republican Party and conservatism were dead look lousy in hindsight.

After President Barack Obama was elected and Democrats increased their congressional majorities, pundits were tripping over themselves to write the GOP’s obituary.

At a time when Obama had won all the key states and brought plenty of new ones like Indiana into play, these pundits sounded convincing.

They made some good arguments — especially related to demographics. Democrats had a large advantage among young voters and Hispanics, and the country seemed to be moving to the left on social issues.

A Republican recovery seemed impossible in the near future.

But a Republican resurgence seems underway. The GOP can mostly thank older voters. Conservative activists might find themselves less grateful.

Even as groups like the Tea Party movement battle to purify the GOP into an ideological rigid party of small government, the key role older voters are playing in Republican fortunes means the party will probably stand for small government only in superficial ways.

Democrats don’t do as well with most demographics compared to last year.

The young still favor Democrats but by significantly less. During the 2008 election young voters favored Democrats 62 percent to 30 percent. The gap has shrunk with 54 percent affiliated with Democrats and 40 percent going for Republicans.

The shift among older voters has been more dramatic. The 2006 midterm elections marked the beginning of a string of Democratic victories. Voters older than 65 went for Democrats in that election 49 percent to 41 percent.

A recent Pew survey predicted they would swing for Republicans 48 percent to 39 percent in this year’s elections. This will have a huge effect on GOP policy. It already has.

Some Republican lawmakers, like Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wisc., have tried to chart a course toward fiscal sustainability that acknowledges cuts Medicare will have to have. But keeping Medicare benefits high has been a rallying cry for Republicans against the Democratic health care bill.

Medicare and Social Security are two of the biggest chunks of the federal budget, and both are going to grow much faster than the revenue coming in to support them.

But how likely are Republicans to advocate raising the retirement age when it would harm their key constituency?

Republicans can oppose all the earmarks they want — it would be a welcome change from the last time they controlled Congress — but that won’t be enough to lower the increasing costs of entitlements.

Moves like those of Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., who delayed a bill to extend unemployment benefits and funding of transportation projects because of concern about the deficit, smack of politics.

Events, like the Conservative Political Action Conference, which are supposed to be gatherings of more principled conservatives, seem even more political.

For all the back patting at these, no one really talked about solutions that would cause anyone, least of all seniors, real pain.

If conservatives are serious about shrinking government, they should keep a better eye on who the Republican party is becoming beholden to.


E-mail: nrdixon@indiana.edu