Attacks on health care reform: “Count on it”

Last month in Iowa, President Barack Obama had a message for opponents hoping to repeal the new health care bill: “Go for it.”

At the Southern Republican Leadership Conference last weekend, Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., offered his rebuttal for the president: “Count on it.”

Pence doesn’t stand alone. He’s just one of 67 lawmakers who have signed an online petition vowing to repeal reform on the Web site repealit.org

“To those who say it would be too difficult to repeal and replace ‘ObamaCare,’ I say it’s a two-step process,” Pence said. “We repeal the Pelosi Congress in 2010, and we replace the Obama administration in 2012.”

While the presidential race in 2012 is too far in the future for speculation, the general direction of this year’s midterm election is beginning to shape up.

“The Democrats will undoubtedly lose seats in November,” said Christine Barbour, IU political science professor. “The president’s party almost always loses at the midterm and incumbents fare poorly when the economy is bad.”

The question is whether Republicans can win over 40 seats from Democrats in the House and 23 of the 36 Senate races in order to gain a majority in both houses.

Even if the GOP can accomplish that task, a veto from the president stands in the way of any health care repeal.

While anything is technically possible in the House, even if Republicans win over every Democratic Senate seat, they would still be eight seats shy of the two-thirds majority needed to override the veto.

That leaves 2013 as the earliest that any repeal could take place through federal legislation.

That hasn’t stopped state legislators from starting their own battles against the new reform.

To date 39 states, including Indiana, have filed legislation to oppose, limit or alter the new law.

Of those states, only three — Virginia, Idaho and Utah — have been successful in making their legislation into law.

“This, of course, doesn’t repeal the bill but makes states immune to its provisions,” said Yanna Krupnikov, IU political science professor.

Others who are challenging reform through the courts are taking more sweeping action. So far 19 state attorneys general have filed legal action against the law, questioning its constitutionality.

Indiana Attorney General Greg Zoeller said it’s in his job description to challenge the law when he joined a multi-state lawsuit two weeks ago, yet he still won’t go so far as to call it unconstitutional.

“It’s unprecedented. I can’t say that it’s unconstitutional,” he said in an interview with Fox News. “But I can say there’s not a case on point that says that the federal government has this authority.”

Legal scholars are more certain.

IU School of Law-Indianapolis professor David Orentlicher said for the law to be overturned, the Supreme Court would have to completely change direction from rulings made in the past.

“If you look at what the court has said in the past 70 years about authority of Congress to pass laws like this,” he said. “It’s well within what the court has said Congress can do.”

Running on a repeal platform to fire up their base, Conservatives need to be careful to not alienate moderates in their quest for a majority in November, Barbour said.

“People like most of the individual components of health care,” she said. “It would be unpopular for the Republicans to say ‘OK, now kids can’t stay on their parents’ insurance until they are 26 and insurance companies can turn away kids with pre-existing conditions.’”