Much to consider in Egypt’s future

David Williams, director of the Center for Constitutional Democracy at the Maurer School of Law, likes to take it slow when it comes to helping shape democracies.

The wave of protests and revolts across the Middle East has been anything but slow, making it hard for Williams to determine how, or if, Egypt will successfully begin democratic rule.

Williams said the uncertainty about Egypt’s future stems from the Egyptian people’s uncertainty about what they want.

“If all you know is that vaguely you want democracy, you’ll never be able to articulate your demands in such a way that you’ll actually be able to get them,” Williams said.

Sophomore and Near Eastern Languages and Cultures student Ali Fitzpatrick said she has some reservations about the Egyptian people being able to get the
demands Williams discussed.

“I know they’re trying to get a people-led government, and I hope they make it, but I think it’s going to be a really long time before they see any sort of stability at all,” Fitzpatrick said.

Williams echoed this sentiment, saying that everything in Egypt has happened so quickly that no one really knows what is going to happen.
He said three main factors could indicate whether Fitzpatrick and the Egyptian people’s hopes of Egypt successfully transitioning to democracy become
a reality.
The first factor, Williams said, is how many dictators have ruled the country. He explained that if a country used to have a democracy and then had one dictator, it would be much easier to transition back to democracy.

The second factor is whether the new government is able to get the constitutional design right.

“You can set up a constitutional framework that ... can distribute power in such a way that it contributes to political dynamics that are favorable for the re-emergence of dictatorship,” Williams said.

The third factor is outside influence. According to the U.S. Department of State website, the United States provides $1.3 billion in military aid to Egypt every year and has provided a total of $28 billion in economic and development assistance since 1975.

Williams says that how the United States uses that leverage will affect Egypt’s future governance.

“If America and other states in the region are playing a productive role, Egypt will more likely stay a stable democracy,” he said.

He said America’s role in this situation is especially important because it will influence, and could change, how America is perceived.

“What is really good about being the leading democracy in the world is when you’re actually leading democracy,” Williams said.

Patience on the part of the Egyptian people and politicians will be key to
achieving stability, he said.

“In terms of amending the permanent constitution in Egypt, they should slow way down because they need to think this through,” Williams said. “If they make bad choices at this point, it could affect them for 50 years.”