Fans must be patient with Kiel, ‘Movement’

In case you haven’t heard, “The Movement” is coming.

The self-given moniker represents the impending arrival of Indiana’s hyped 2012 basketball recruiting class and its desire to revive the once-proud program.

But, quite surprisingly, “The Movement” has now been extended to the traditionally underwhelming football program, which just pulled a major recruiting upset.

Spurning offers from college football’s bluebloods, Gunner Kiel, the Columbus East High School star and No. 1 quarterback recruit in the country, committed to IU.

It’s an unprecedented coup for a program that is perpetually trying to turn it around, and it only adds to the momentum IU athletics has established this past year.

Expectations will surely increase — and deservedly so — but fans should proceed with
prudence.

Celebrate the fact the basketball and football teams are on the right track, but be cautiously optimistic about on-field success.

I know this is the wet blanket approach, but talent doesn’t always ensure winning. There are too many other ingredients in the formula for success.

This isn’t to downplay the possible ramifications of Kiel’s signing. Maybe this actually is the first fallen domino in a series of events that propels the program.

After all, serious college football success tends to come out of nowhere. Check where the University of Oregon and Boise State University were two decades ago.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves and buy those tickets to the Rose Bowl in Pasadena just yet.

Kiel, by all accounts, is a can’t-miss prospect, but he won’t be able to win by himself. And even though Kevin Wilson has proven he can recruit, it may take several classes to restock the historically dismal defense.

A good contemporary comparison could be Jake Locker. He arrived at the University of Washington as one of the top quarterback recruits in the country and left with just 16 wins and one bowl appearance, a win in the 2010 Holiday Bowl.

Those are pretty low numbers for a four-year starter; and I’d imagine if Kiel has a similar career arc, he’ll have not met expectations, even if he becomes a first-round pick.

As Kiel is preparing to take the reins at Memorial Stadium, “The Movement” will also begin to take shape across the parking lot. In this case, though, a lack of help shouldn’t be a problem.

The 2012 class has been hyped as Indiana’s modern-day answer to the “Fab Five,” sans the supposed political incorrectness. By the time they reach campus, there could even be a much-heralded sixth member.

Again, though, a supreme collection of talent doesn’t always equal championships.

As a friend pointed out during the NBA playoffs, there could be interesting parallels between IU’s 2012 class and the Miami Heat’s “Big Three.”

It’s hard to argue Miami didn’t have three of the four best individual players in the NBA Finals, but they were clearly outclassed.

A combination of arrogance — both actual and perceived — and unrealistic expectations masked the real problem: The Heat was still too individualistic.

Conceivably, something similar could happen to Indiana’s future teams. It may be difficult to collectivize all that talent into a coherent unit.

They’ll probably figure it out and may even become a perennial championship contender, but fans shouldn’t celebrate like it’s already happened.

In 15 months, “The Movement” will have its coming out party at Hoosier Hysteria, which could be reminiscent of the Heat’s ill-fated welcome party.

Surely, the same “yes we did” attitude may exist amongst the Hoosier fan base.

When Kiel and the 2012 basketball recruiting class arrive, they must avoid being weighed down by lofty expectations.   

These guys won’t be able to hide. “The Movement” will be televised. It’ll be brought to you by Rotel and Barbasol seven days a week on the Big Ten Network.

It could end up being a test in patience.

For now, though, credit needs to be given to Fred Glass, Tom Crean and Kevin Wilson for creating some definite momentum. For an athletics department coming off a tough stretch, the next few years could be quite the ride.

Regardless of the outcome, though, fans should proceed cautiously.

­— sealogan@indiana.edu