Giants will win World Series

It’s that time of year again. With the Major League Baseball regular season drawing to a close, it’s time to pick award winners and predict who will dominate October. If this year’s playoffs can deliver half the drama and excitement 2011 did, we’re all in for quite a treat.

Without further ado, here are my picks.

AL MVP

Miguel Cabrera might have won the Triple Crown, but I’ve got to go with Mike Trout on this one. He was just behind Cabrera in batting average, and he led the MLB in stolen bases and runs, the latter of which he won by a margin of 20.

He also drove in 83 RBI and hit 30 homeruns as a leadoff hitter. His wins above replacement of 10.7 blew everyone else out of the water. The last guy to post a WAR that high was Barry Bonds in 2002.

Plus, Trout’s a much better defender than Cabrera.

NL MVP

My vote goes to Andrew McCutchen. Like Trout, he has very well-rounded numbers: a .327 batting average, 31 home runs, 107 runs, 96 RBI and 20 stolen bases. He produced those numbers on the 23rd-ranked offense.

I don’t care that he’s on a team that finished with 79 wins. Look at the Pittsburgh Pirates roster. Without McCutchen, the Pirates would have finished as one of the worst teams in baseball.

AL Cy Young

This is a tough choice between David Price and Justin Verlander. Price has the slight edge in ERA, but Verlander owns the better WHIP and WAR while logging more strikeouts and innings pitched. Verlander it is, giving him his second straight Cy Young Award.

NL Cy Young

R.A. Dickey and Gio Gonzalez are getting all the hype to win this award, but Clayton Kershaw had a better season than both of them.

He posted the best ERA in the MLB, recorded a better WHIP and WAR than both Dickey and Gonzalez and finished only one strikeout behind Dickey for the NL lead.
Like Verlander, Kershaw should win his second straight Cy Young.

World Series Prediction

In the AL, I don’t really trust the Baltimore Orioles or New York Yankees. The Orioles have benefited from an incredible record of 29-9 in one-run games and a jaw-dropping 16-2 record in extra inning games. Their run differential of plus seven is by far the worst of any playoff team. I have a hard time believing this kind of fortune can continue to manifest itself.

As for the Yankees, they rely too much on the long ball, and their starting pitching isn’t the most stable.

I believe the winner of the Detroit-Oakland series will represent the AL in the World Series. Both teams are incredibly hot heading into the postseason, and as we learned from the Cardinals last year, the playoffs are all about who’s hot.

I’ll give the slight edge to the Detroit Tigers because they have the best ace in Verlander and the hottest offensive weapon in Cabrera.

In the NL, I’m all about the San Francisco Giants. Besides momentum, the most important asset for a playoff baseball team is starting pitching. The Giants have both.
In their last 20 games, the Giants are 14-6 yet somehow flying under everyone’s radar. Their top three pitchers, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong each have an ERA of 3.37 or lower. Their usual ace, Tim Lincecum, has struggled this year, but most of that was due to a rough start.

Since the All-Star break, Lincecum has posted an ERA of 3.83. That’s still not his usual self, but he’s a great bullpen option to hold leads.

San Francisco’s offense isn’t too shabby either. The batting average of .269 is fifth-best in all of baseball, and the 718 runs is good for 12th.

In the rest of the NL, the Washington Nationals are too inexperienced, the St. Louis Cardinals are too inconsistent and the Cincinnati Reds don’t have quite enough firepower in their lineup.

Give me the Giants in six games against the Tigers in the World Series.

­— tlstutzm@indiana.edu