Polls declares Ind. election front runners

There’s a leader emerging in the U.S. Senate race between Republican candidate and State Treasurer Richard Mourdock and Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly, D-2nd District.
Donnelly leads Mourdock 47 percent to 36 percent, according to the third Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll.

Libertarian candidate Andrew Horning polled at 6 percent, while 11 percent were undecided.

From Oct. 28-30, 800 Indiana voters were surveyed, mainly via phone.
The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percent. This is the final Howey/DePauw before the Nov. 6 elections.

Of the respondents, 45 percent identified as Republican, 34 percent as Democrat and 21 percent as independent.

A similar Howey/DePauw survey in September showed the race being much closer, with Donnelly leading at 40 percent and Mourdock with 38 percent, well within the margin of error.

The survey was conducted by Republican pollster Christine Matthews of Bellwether Research and Democratic pollster Fred Yang of Garin-Hart-Yang Research.    
“Joe Donnelly will be the next U.S. senator,” Yang said.   

The survey reported that 87 percent of voters are aware of the now-infamous Mourdock rape and pregnancy statement from the final debate. Forty percent of respondents said the comments made them less likely to vote for Mourdock.

In terms of candidate favorability/unfavorability, Mourdock stands at 30-49 percent, a stark contrast from the September survey results of 26-32 percent.     
 
The Donnelly lead contradicts a new internal Mourdock poll released Friday that shows he leads Donnelly 46 percent to 44 percent.

The McLaughlin & Associates poll was conducted for the Mourdock campaign from Oct. 31-Nov. 1.

In the governor’s race, Republican candidate Mike Pence still leads Democratic challenger John Gregg 47 percent to 40 percent. Libertarian Rupert Boneham earned 5 percent.

This 7 percent gap is down from the 13 percent reported in September, when Pence led Gregg 47 percent to 34 percent in the previous Howey/DePauw poll.
  
An internal poll released by Pence this week similarly showed him leading Gregg 46 percent to 37 percent. Another internal poll released by the Gregg campaign this week showed Pence at 47 percent to Gregg’s 44 percent.

— Matthew Glowicki