IU-Minnesota Breakdown

Head Coach

Tubby Smith is in his sixth season as the head coach of Minnesota (118-69). Smith has led the Gophers to the NCAA tournament twice during his tenure, but most people might remember Smith better for when he won a NCAA championship with Kentucky in his first season as the Wildcats’ coach (1997-98). Smith’s career record in 22 seasons is 505-214.

This season’s leading scorers

Like the Hoosiers, the Golden Gophers utilize a very balanced scoring attack, as four players (Andre Hollins, Rodney Williams, Joe Coleman and Austin Hollins) average more than 10 points per game and another player, Trevor Mbakwe, is averaging 9.3 PPG.

As a sophomore, Andre Hollins, of no relation to Austin Hollins, has transformed into one of the Big Ten’s best point guards. He is a quick, athletic ball-handler that can shoot the ball from downtown — he’s 29 of 67 (43.3 percent) from three-point land.

Hollins can cause havoc by creating his own shot or by driving the lane to create open looks for his teammates. This season he leads Minnesota with 3.7 assists per game.

A number of Hollins’ assists find the 6-foot-7-inch senior Rodney Williams. Williams is an animal on the court and has the ability to throw down dunks with the best of them.

Google search “Rodney Williams’ best dunks of 2011-2012” if you need visual proof.

Besides dunking, Williams provides the Gophers with a strong swingman to complement Hollins at the point. In the Gophers’ last game against No. 12 Illinois, Williams only scored eight points, but his points including two monster dunks were momentum changers.

Austin Hollins and Joe Coleman are rounding out Minnesota’s top-scorers.

Most Hoosier fans will remember Austin Hollins for his 18-point performance to help Minnesota upset IU on Jan. 12, 2012, in Assembly Hall. This season, he boasts a 10.8 PPG average, while making 41.7 percent of his field goals.

As for Coleman, the 6-foot-4-inch sophomore guard probably would not have made it onto my scouting report before his performance against the Fighting Illini on Wednesday night.

In a tough road environment, Coleman exploded for a career-high 29 points on 10 of 16 shooting (2 of 3 from behind the arc). Normally, Coleman isn’t a huge threat on the offensive end, but when he is open — and he was open a lot against the Illini — the guard can knock down open shots.

The difference is Trevor Mbawke

Last season, Mbawke, a 6-foot-8-inch forward from St. Paul, Minn., suffered a season-ending torn ACL in what would have been his redshirt senior season. After earning a sixth season of eligibility from the NCAA, Mbawke is once again a force in the Big Ten and has changed the complexion of Minnesota’s team.

Entering this week, Mbakwe ranked third in rebounds (7.7 RPG), fifth in field goal percentage (58.4 percent), third in blocked shots (1.5 blocks per game) and first in offensive rebounds per game (3.0).

Mbawke is also the Big Ten’s active leader in career double-doubles with 27, including his 19-point, 11 rebound double-double Wednesday night against Illinois.

At the end of last season, Mbawke could have left for the NBA, but his decision to come back for a sixth season has provided a huge boast to Gophers’ back line.

He is the rock in the middle for Minnesota and is a part of the reason why the Gophers entered this week ranked fourth in the Big Ten in scoring defense (59.2 PPG), fourth in opponents’ field goal percentage (38.1 percent), second in team rebounds per game (41.3), first in offensive rebounds per game (16.8) and first in block shots per game (6.7).

What they do well

It is hard to find a team in the Big Ten right now that is playing better perimeter defense than the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

If you don’t believe the Golden Gophers can shut down the three-ball, just ask the best three-point shooting team in the Big Ten, the Fighting Illini. The Illini only shot 3 of 24 (12.5 percent) from downtown against Minnesota Wednesday night.

After Wednesday’s game, the Golden Gophers are allowing opponents to shoot an anemic 29.6 percent from behind the arc in 16 games, which ranks Minnesota in the top-four of the Big Ten.

Despite perimeter defense being a strong point for Minnesota, the Golden Gophers’ strongest trait might be their offensive rebounding ability.

Entering the week, Minnesota led the Big Ten by averaging 16.8 offensive rebounds per game. Led by Trevor Mbawke and Rodney Williams, who began the week ranked number one and two, respectively, in the Big Ten in offensive rebounds per game, the Golden Gophers capitalize on teams that get lazy on the defensive glass and they force opponents to consciously battle for boards for all forty minutes.

If IU puts on another poor rebounding performance like the one we saw against Butler in mid-December, the Hoosiers will have their hands full trying to stop Minnesota’s offensive rebounding attack.

Matchup to Watch

Watch for the battle down low as two of the Big Ten’s best big men, Trevor Mbawke and Cody Zeller, will square off against each other for the first time ever.

Here’s a stat comparison between Mbawke and Zeller.

Mbawke: 6-feet-8-inches, 245 pounds

20.1 minutes per game, 58.6 field goal percentage, 7.9 rebounds per game, 1.4 blocks per game, 9.3 PPG.

Zeller: 7-feet, 240 pounds

27.7 minutes per game, 62.7 field goal percentage, 7.9 rebounds per game, 1.3 blocks per game, 16.5 PPG.

Whoever wins this matchup down low will give their team a big advantage, but don’t be surprised if these two players neutralize each other, leaving the game up to the rest of the men on the court.

My take

Minnesota will be one of the toughest opponents IU sees all year.

The Golden Gophers are coming off of a statement victory — a Big Ten road win in a tough environment against No. 12 Illinois — so you know they would love to make another statement by winning back-to-back Big Ten road games against two top-tier opponents.

The question is: will Wednesday’s hard-fought road game drain Minnesota and affect their overall performance Saturday?

My first inclination is yes.

It’s hard enough to win one road game in the Big Ten this season, which makes back-to-back road victories against two of the Big Ten’s best teams almost seem impossible.

That being said, here’s why I think Minnesota has a chance to make that a
reality.

Across the board, the Golden Gophers can match IU’s athletic ability and depth.

While IU might have an slight advantage in the post with Zeller and Watford, Minnesota counters with Mbawke and Williams, two guys that stack up well against Zeller and Watford’s skill, size and physicality.

Austin and Andre Hollins are skilled guards that can shoot well, but Kevin “Yogi” Ferrell and Jordan Hulls are just as capable ball-handlers and snipers.

When it comes to the wing position, IU could have an advantage with the duo of Victor Oladipo and Will Sheehey, but with Joe Coleman’s career-high night against the Illini, it’s important the Hoosiers don’t overlook the sophomore. While he might not be the star of the night, Coleman could act as a thorn in the side of IU by hitting his open shots if the Hoosiers lose track of him.

Even when you look at both teams’ benches, IU and Minnesota are similar. Entering this week, IU ranked No. 1 in bench scoring and Minnesota ranked third.

In a game with two evenly matched teams like Minnesota and IU, intangibles ultimately decide who wins. Things like diving after loose balls, drawing charges and, yes, maybe most importantly, home-court advantage become game-changers in closely contested conference games.

Last year, Minnesota came into Bloomington and silenced Assembly Hall by out-hustling the Hoosiers to loose balls and by shutting down IU’s three-point attack. IU only shot 4 of 18 from behind the arc. The Golden Gophers answered any run IU attempted to make by executing in crucial moments.

This year, both team will make runs throughout the course of the game, but whichever team makes the final run and is able to sustain momentum for the longest periods of time will be the team that comes out on top.

Prediction

Because this game will played in Bloomington, I believe the Hoosiers have a slight advantage. When you add in the fact this will be the second road game for Golden Gophers in the matter of four days, I think that slight advantage is compounded.
In the end, the Hoosiers will pull away behind the emotion of the Assembly Hall crowd, free throws and the tired legs of the Golden Gophers, but it will not be easy.

IU wins 80-75.