Column: Breakdown of IU-Illinois

Scouting the Illini

Illinois is a team that lives and dies by the 3-point shot because of their skill at the guard position with Brandon Paul, D.J. Richardson and Tracy Abrams.

No team in the Big Ten has taken more 3-pointers than Illinois (555 attempts), and only the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (193) have made more 3-point shots than the Illini’s 182.

While guard play is a strength, Illinois’ biggest weakness is lack of an inside presence, which is an area the Hoosiers will exploit.

If the Illini go man-to-man, forward Nnanna Egwu will be manned-up with Cody Zeller, and forwards Sam McLaurin and Tyler Griffey will trade off responsibility for IU’s senior forward Christian Watford.

Egwu has shown flashes of consistency with back-to-back 10-rebound games against Nebraska and Michigan two weeks ago, but Zeller should dominate against the Illini forward, because Egwu is not ready to handle a gifted scorer like Zeller.

As for McLaurin and Griffey against Watford, the two Illini will utilize different skill sets.
McLaurin, a 6-foot-8-inch graduate student from Havana, Fla., has started the last five games for the Illini, because he provides more resistance down low.

On the other hand, Griffey’s style is similar to Watford’s, but C-Wat is just better at it.

Both Griffey and Watford are seniors that can stretch defenses because they shoot the 3-ball, but what makes Watford a better scorer is his willingness to drive to the basket to get points in the paint.

More than half of Griffey’s field goal attempts have been from 3-point range (73-of-134), compared to Watford, who has only shot 73 of his 183 field goal attempts from behind the arc.

With Zeller and Watford giving the Hoosiers a big advantage down low, the Illini will probably be forced into playing a zone defense against IU, which could create problems for Illinois.

Entering Thursday’s matchup, the Illini have given up the second most 3-pointers by any team in the Big Ten (150) and rank 11th in the conference in opponents’ 3-point percentage (34.4 percent).

On the other side, IU is ranked No. 1 in the Big Ten in 3-point percentage (42.2 percent) and second in field goal percentage (50.1 percent), while also ranking second in the nation with 83.8 points per game.

If this game becomes a 3-point contest, IU has the edge purely because the Hoosiers are a better defensive team, ranking first in the Big Ten in opponents’ field goal percentage (37.7 percent) and second in opponent’s 3-point percentage (30.9 percent).
 
Matchup to watch: Victor Oladipo vs. Brandon Paul
 
There’s no denying that Brandon Paul is the Illini’s most potent scoring threat, but the question is if he will be able to create open looks against IU junior guard Victor Oladipo, who is arguably the best on-ball defender in the Big Ten.

This season, Paul is averaging 17.4 points per game and 2.2 3-pointers per game while recording 4.6 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game.

Ever since he has been at U of I, Paul has been a player who needs to take a lot of shots in order for the Illini to be successful.

In 23 games, the Gurnee, Ill., native is averaging 13.0 field goal attempts per game and 6.3 free throw attempts per game, which is almost 25 percent of his team’s field goal and free throw attempts per game.

Against Oladipo, I don’t anticipate Paul taking as many shots, because IU’s junior guard will be connected to Paul’s hip whenever Paul is in the game.

If Paul forces shots against Oladipo and doesn’t look for open teammates, IU should have the advantage, because every shot he takes will probably be a contested, low-percentage shot.

On the defensive end, I give the advantage to Oladipo against Paul, and I expect Oladipo to have more of an impact on the offensive end as well, because his defense will translate into offense.
 
Prediction: The Hoosiers’ relentless defense will turn Paul and the rest of the Illini into inefficient shooters from the field, which will lead to IU winning the rebounding battle.

Behind strong scoring performances from Zeller and Watford, the Hoosiers’ depth, speed and scoring ability will be too much for the Illini to handle.

No. 1 IU defeats Illinois 84-68.

­— mdnorman@indiana.edu