IU needs Watford to bounce back

If Indiana’s upcoming opponents want a blueprint on how to beat the number one team in the nation, they should look at how Minnesota neutralized Christian Watford.

Tuesday’s 77-73 loss to Minnesota is hardly the end of the world for the Hoosiers, but it was a game that illustrated how important Watford’s newfound consistency has been to IU’s success this season.

The red-flag raising stat from Tuesday’s game, points in the paint, can be traced back to fouling in the first half that limited Watford’s minutes and production.

For the game, IU allowed Minnesota to score 40 points in the paint, including 21 second-chance points.

A lot of Minnesota’s success came at the hands of Trevor Mbakwe, who finished with 21 points and 12 rebounds, because he was more aggressive in the first half than anyone else on the floor.

Mbakwe challenged Watford in the post, drawing two fouls against Watford in the first 8:54 of the game that forced the Birmingham, Ala., native to watch the remaining 11 minutes of the first half from the bench.

As the Hoosiers have shown opponents all season, aggressive play around the basket leads to fouls being called, which could take a player completely out of the flow of a game, leaving his team crippled.

More than any other player on IU’s roster, Watford needs to get going in the first half.
When he is passive early in the game, he struggles to make an impact, which hurt the Hoosiers against Minnesota.

Here’s the senior’s stat line from the first half: 6 minutes, two fouls, 0 points (0-of-2 from the field) and 0 rebounds.

Watford constantly talks about the importance of being aggressive from the tip-off, but because of foul trouble, he couldn’t assert himself into game in the same way that he has been throughout the Big Ten season.

I don’t want to say that IU was crippled after Watford went into foul trouble — they had plenty of time and opportunities to recover — but without Watford on the floor, the Hoosiers were left scrambling for scoring and defensive size to match Minnesota’s down low.

Think about these two facts.

Tuesday night marked the first time that Watford, who finished with eight points, did not score in double figures since IU lost to Butler in overtime 88-86 on Dec. 15.

It also marked only the second game this season where Watford failed to collect at least three rebounds.

Did Watford’s performance cost the Hoosiers a chance to beat Minnesota?

Certainly not — he was not the only IU player that put on a less-than stellar performance in “the Barn”.

Cody Zeller (9 points) and Kevin “Yogi” Ferrell (10 points) combined to shoot just 4 of 19 from the field, and the bench only combined to score five points outside of Will Sheehey’s eight points.

But against Iowa, the Hoosiers need a bounce-back game from Watford because he will be responsible for shutting down the Hawkeyes’ second leading scorer and best rebounder, Aaron White.

White, a 6-foot-8 sophomore from Strongsville, Ohio, is ranked 12th in the Big Ten in both points per game (13.6) and rebounds per game (6.6) because he is one of the most effective players in the Big Ten at using his body.

In 28 games, White has attempted 204 free throws, which is more than any player in the Big Ten including Zeller, who is second with 199 free throw attempts.

Like Mbakwe on Tuesday, White is going to test Watford’s defense to see if he can rack up fouls on the Hoosiers’ grizzled veteran, so it is crucial that Watford provides tough resistance without fouling White.

Post defense and rebounding have been two of the most improved aspects of Watford’s game this season, partially because he put on more muscle and is stronger, so his struggle against Minnesota might have been an anomaly.

But if I was a head coach preparing to face the Hoosiers, as Iowa’s Fran McCaffrey is now doing, I would use Minnesota’s formula against Watford to my advantage.

Watford’s consistency is one of the most important foundational blocks that IU’s team is built upon this season.

Eliminating that consistency is like removing one of the bottom pieces in Jenga.

Once you take it away, everything else in place could come crashing down.

Prediction:

Losing at Minnesota is not devastating to IU’s chances at winning the Big Ten or securing a No. 1 seed for the NCAA tournament, but compounding that with a loss at home to a desperate Iowa team would be.

All season long, the Hoosiers have not lost back-to-back games and I don’t expect that to start now.

In the three games IU has played after a loss, the Hoosiers have beaten their opponents by an average of 20 points.

Iowa is the third-highest scoring team in the Big Ten (71.3 PPG), but they are still a young team that has struggled on the road (Hawkeyes are 2-and-7 on the road).

Behind rebound games from Zeller, Ferrell and Watford, the Hoosiers will beat the Hawkeyes to secure IU’s 25th win of the season.

Hoosiers win 84-71.

— mdnorman@indiana.edu