Column: Classic offense vs. defense matchup in East Lansing

It’s a battle of the titans Saturday in East Lansing, Mich.

No, it’s not Alabama-Texas A&M. It’s not Georgia-Clemson.

It’s IU-Michigan State.

Yes, it’s weird to say. But it’s true.

It’s Michigan State’s vaunted defense against IU’s air-it-out aerial assault.

Coming into the season, you’d be hard-pressed to find someone who would rank this game as potentially one of the top statistical matchups of the season on one side of the ball.

But it is.

IU enters the game with an offense that ranks No. 9 in yards per game, No. 10 in passing yards per game and No. 11 in points per game.

Needless to say, it’s an elite offense.

But this week, it has its biggest test in the Michigan State defense.

The Spartans rank No. 1 in the FBS in total defense, rushing defense, pass efficiency defense and opponent third down conversion.

Opponents have had 69 possessions against the Spartans this year. They’ve forced 38 three-and-outs. That means more than half the time, Sparty is forcing a three-and-out.

Wow.

They are also top 10 in the nation in scoring defense (7th) and passing defense (8th).

If you threw those two team statistics out at ESPN without listing the team names, the network would have to at least consider putting that matchup as its primetime showcase game. The teams have put up numbers that are that good.

It’s an extremely promising matchup that should be fun to watch.
When there is an offense driving down the field like a locomotive train and scoring at will and a defense acting like a brick wall, something has to give.

The fact is, only one side of this duel can win.

And that could go pretty far in saying how good IU’s offense actually is.

If it’s able to march down the field against this defense, then it is really special.

But that’s not very fair to expect.

There’s a good chance IU’s offense is going to struggle during this game. It’s not going to come close to the 44.4 points per game it is averaging. Not when the opposing defense is allowing 13.4.

But it’s going to have to score, and still score a fair amount, because at the end of the day, IU wins games with its offense. The question just becomes how much it has to get against the Spartan defense.

Perhaps even more important is how the other matchup works. What happens when IU’s defense goes against Michigan State’s offense?

That could be the key to the game in what should be billed as a premier offense versus premier defense.

After allowing Penn State just 4.4 yards per play — including a rushing average of 1.8 yards for a total of only 70 yards on 38 carries — the IU defense feels more confident than ever.

And it should.

Junior Tim Bennett is playing like arguably one of the top corners in college football right now, leading the nation in pass breakups with 14.

IU finally got some pressure on the quarterback last week, forcing some errant throws. It even recorded six tackles for loss.

If the IU defense manages to contain the Michigan State offense, which is only averaging 28 points per game, it’ll take a lot of pressure off of IU sophomore quarterback Nate Sudfeld and the offense.

The clash is on.

My prediction: IU squeaks out a clutch road victory and its first win against Michigan State since 2006, breaking through the Michigan State defensive wall just enough for a 27-24 road victory.

   — robhowar@indiana.edu
Follow columnist Robby Howard on Twitter @robbyhoward1.