Column: IU's bowl chances hinge on Penn State matchup

This is it.

If IU loses to Penn State on Saturday at Memorial Stadium, its bowl chances are next to none.

On the flip side, if IU beats Penn State for the first time in football, people will jump back onto the bandwagon.

This game — the fifth game of the year — is the make-or-break game for the Hoosiers this season.

“This is our one time to play this game,” IU Coach Kevin Wilson said of the urgency to break IU’s 0-16 record against the Nittany Lions. “This is our one chance for Penn State. Then it will be the next game, our one chance.”

Sure, IU will have chances remaining after Saturday. But will they be good chances?

A win means IU would just have to beat Minnesota, Illinois and Purdue at home to become bowl eligible. All of these are winnable games, especially considering they’re at Memorial Stadium.

But a loss on Saturday would mean IU would have to not only win those three home games, but also beat either Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin or Ohio State on the road — a much tougher task.

And what would a win say about the program?

After a 2-2 split during non-conference play, fans are already skeptical of this team.
They heard all of the hype during the preseason.

They’ve seen flashes of potential.

Yet, there’s still something missing. This team hasn’t been able to get the big win yet when it has needed it.

IU needs this game. It needs it for its season, and, more importantly, it needs it for its program.

Think about a guy like senior wide receiver Kofi Hughes.

He’s been here for four years. As a senior in high school at Cathedral in Indianapolis, he was the 2009 Gatorade Indiana Football Player of the Year.

He ranks in the top 25 in receiving yardage in IU history.

And he’s never beaten Penn State. He’s barely even come close to sniffing a bowl game.

It’s tough to get good players to come to your school if a guy like that can’t be rewarded with a bowl game sometime during his career.

And what about just having the satisfaction of beating Penn State?

“It’s not about something we’ve never done,” Wilson said. “It’s taking advantage of these days to go out at 12:00 and go 60 minutes against a good team and do our best and see what it does.”

That’s the mentality this team has to have. The Hoosiers can’t think about the implications of this game. They just need to go out and play.

The last time the Hoosiers came out tight for a game, Navy ran all over them.
The defense needs to be relaxed and confident enough to fly to the ball. And the offense needs to find its rhythm early and score points on its first couple of drives to gain some momentum.

A win means optimism heading forward and a renewed confidence, if only for one week, in the program.

It means bowl hopes stay alive.

But if IU loses, this isn’t just another loss.

It could spell the loss of another season.

My prediction: The IU defensive backs struggle to contain Penn State junior wide receiver Allen Robinson, who has caught at least seven passes and recorded over 100 yards in three of Penn State’s first four games. The IU offense puts up more than the 14.5 points per game Penn State is allowing, but, in the end, it’s not enough. IU loses — and loses its chances at a bowl game — 34-28.

­— robhowar@indiana.edu
Follow columnist Robby Howard on Twitter @robbyhoward1.