Column: Hoosiers will get upset

The Hoosiers’ next game could go either way.

IU (10-5, 0-2 conference) plays at Penn State (9-7, 0-3 conference) Saturday.

The Nittany Lions have struggled this year and there are several reasons why IU should win in the end.

Penn State lost to Bucknell and Princeton, and dropped their first two conference games (against Michigan State and Illinois) by a combined 36 points.

They don’t have much talent beside guards D.J. Newbill and Tim Frazier.

Against Minnesota on Wednesday, both Newbill and Frazier fouled out. In the last 58 seconds, Penn State was without their two premier players and looked inept offensively.

IU has beaten Penn State five straight times by an average of 19 points, and own the all-time series lead 33-9.

The Nittany Lions went 2-17 last year against Big Ten teams.

The Hoosiers are coming off two straight losses to open up the Big Ten season. They’ll be eager and focused to get their first conference win.

All those are reasons why the Hoosiers should win.

But in my opinion, those aren’t enough.

Though Penn State has little outside of Frazier and Newbill, those two are spectacular players.

Newbill has struggled lately. He had seven points in 25 minutes against Illinois and his stat line against Minnesota — zero points and five fouls — was less than impressive.

But he’s still averaging fewer than 17 points a game and shooting more than 40 percent from behind the arc. Expect him to break out of his recent slump.

And then there’s Frazier.

The wily senior always seems to be making plays and seeing things other players don’t. He’s a heady player who your grandpa would say, ‘plays the game the right way.’

“Tim Frazier’s a magician out there,” a BTN announcer said during the Penn State-Minnesota broadcast.

Newcomer transfer John Johnson from Pitt has played in four games this year, with mixed results.

His point totals have been Jekyll and Hyde this year. He’s had 20, 2, 18 and 4 points in his games this year. But he gives the Nittany Lions a viable guard to spell Frazier and Newbill.

Against Minnesota, Penn State broke out a 1-3-1 half court trap at times. Sometimes they stayed in the zone, and sometimes they switched back to a man defense.

If the Nittany Lions are smart, they’ll play almost the entire game in a zone defense and force the Hoosiers to make perimeter shots.

Minus sophomore guard Kevin “Yogi” Ferrell, who has been stellar from behind the arc, the Hoosiers have shot 26 percent from three.

That figure is abhorrent.

Expect the Nittany Lions to swarm Ferrell, and make the other Hoosiers on the court beat them with jump shots by packing the paint and not allowing penetration.

The Hoosiers are best when they run up and down the court at a lighting pace. That allows the Hoosiers to use their athleticism in the most efficient manner.

Expect Penn State to do the opposite. They’ll walk the ball up the court and make this a half-court, slow-tempo affair.

IU has more talent than Penn State.

It should win.

But with young teams, they are consistent only in being inconsistent.

I think Frazier will win this game for Penn State, and the lack of outside shooting will lose this game for IU.

And with Wisconsin on the schedule for the next game, it could be a nightmare Big Ten start for the Hoosier faithful.

Prediction- Penn State 68, IU 64

Evan Hoopfer is 5-1 in predictions this season.

­— ehoopfer@indiana.edu