Location to predict Golden Globe movie winners

(MCT) NEW YORK — To predict this year’s Golden Globe winners, just follow the three rules of real estate: location, location, location.

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association always tends to categorize and divvy up its Golden Globe nominees in kooky ways, and this year is no exception.

How did Daniel Bruhl, who takes up half the screen time of “Rush,” end up as a supporting actor?

What is the melancholy sci-fi tale “Her” doing in the comedy-musical category?

Once you figure where an actor or a movie has been placed — and why — you might be able to guess the winner.

The most obvious example comes with “12 Years a Slave” and “American Hustle,” two rivals in this year’s awards race.

The former is a profound film about the African-American experience, while the latter is a high-energy crime story featuring white A-listers like Bradley Cooper, Amy Adams and Jennifer Lawrence.

The Globes put the slavery movie in the drama category, and “American Hustle” into the comedy category, essentially guaranteeing each will win.

But for once, maybe the Globes have the right idea.

Best picture, drama
“12 Years a Slave”
“Captain Phillips”
“Gravity”
“Philomena”
“Rush”
Should win: “12 Years a Slave.” Without wallowing in misery, Steve McQueen’s masterful film illuminates a painful chapter in American history.
Will win: “12 Years a Slave”

Best actress, drama
Cate Blanchett, “Blue
Jasmine”
Sandra Bullock, “Gravity”
Judi Dench, “Philomena”
Emma Thompson, “Saving Mr. Banks”
Kate Winslet, “Labor Day”
Should win: Blanchett. Though the movie polarized viewers, few argued with Blanchett’s funny, nervy performance as a shattered socialite.
Will win: Blanchett

Best actor, drama
Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a Slave”
Idris Elba, “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom”
Tom Hanks, “Captain Phillips”
Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”
Robert Redford, “All Is Lost”
Should win: McConaughey. He shed 50 pounds to play an AIDS victim, yet became twice the actor he’s ever been — and that’s saying something.
Will win: Redford. The Hollywood legend who proves his indie cred by starring in art-house drama may be too seductive to
pass up.

Best picture, musical or comedy
“American Hustle”
“Her”
“Inside Llewyn Davis”
“Nebraska”
“The Wolf of Wall Street”
Should win: “Her.” It’s neither musical nor comedy, but a visionary, groundbreaking work of science fiction.
Will win: “American Hustle.” It’s too much fun, and the ‘70s costumes too delicious for the Globes to overlook.

Best actress, musical or comedy
Amy Adams, “American Hustle”
Julie Delpy, “Before Midnight”
Greta Gerwig, “Frances Ha”
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Enough Said”
Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County”
Should win: Adams. As a complex con woman who somehow hides her cards and shows them all at once, she’s the central mystery in “American Hustle.”
Will win: Adams

Best actor, musical or comedy
Christian Bale, “American Hustle”
Bruce Dern, “Nebraska”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Oscar Isaac, “Inside Llewyn Davis”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Her”
Should win: Dern. Best known for playing psychos and villains, Dern does a 180 as an endearing curmudgeon. Oddly, it may be his most natural performance to date.
Will win: Dern

Best supporting actress
Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine”
Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”
Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”
Julia Roberts, “August: Osage County”
June Squibb, “Nebraska”
Should win: Nyong’o. The Kenyan actress holds nothing back as the woefully abused Patsy, whose flayed body becomes the central symbol in “12 Years a Slave.”
Will win: Nyong’o. But there’s room for an upset from critical favorite Squibb or popular favorite Lawrence.

Best supporting actor
Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips”
Daniel Bruhl, “Rush”
Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle”
Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave”
Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”
Should win: Leto. The actor-rocker blends both his careers as the cross-dressing character Rayon, who embodies the grit and vulnerability of the entire AIDS community in “Dallas Buyers Club.”
Will win: Leto

Best director
Alfonso Cuaron, “Gravity”
Paul Greengrass, “Captain Phillips”
Steve McQueen, “12 Years a Slave”
Alexander Payne, “Nebraska”
David O. Russell, “American Hustle”
Should win: McQueen. The competition here is extraordinary, but McQueen is operating on a higher level, somewhere up near Stanley Kubrick.
Will win: McQueen

rafer.guzman@newsday.com