Column: IU will upset Iowa

It’s no secret that if IU basketball had a mascot this year, they’d have two: Jekyll and Hyde.

IU fans have seen both this year. Against then-No. 3 Wisconsin and then-No. 10 Michigan at home, it was Mr. Hyde making an appearance at Assembly Hall, and the fans demanded an encore.

Against Penn State and Northwestern at home, Dr. Jekyll reared his ugly head, characterized by epic collapses and poor perimeter shooting that sent Hoosier fans cursing not-so-under their breath as they walked back to their cars.

Bold prediction — Hyde has locked Jekyll in a closet somewhere in the Villas, and IU will come out and shock the conference tonight.

No. 20 Iowa (19-8, 8-6) comes to Bloomington to face IU (15-12, 5-9) at 9 p.m. on ESPN. It’s a makeup game from last Tuesday after Assembly Hall broke.

There’s no doubt Iowa is good. The Hawkeyes stand at 8-6 in arguably the nation’s best basketball conference. They have the fourth most efficient offense in the nation, according to kenpom.com.

You might have thought IU dominated the glass, but you haven’t seen the Hawkeyes play. They lead the conference in offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate.

Translation: Iowa draws a lot of fouls, and gets a lot of offensive rebounds. The Hawkeyes score 25.7 percent of their points from the charity stripe, once again best in the Big Fourteen — ugh, I mean Big Ten.

So the case for Iowa coming in and steamrolling the Hoosiers can be made. But the opposite argument, I believe, is stronger.

Iowa has been struggling lately. The Hawkeyes fell to Wisconsin on Saturday at home, and then lost in the Barn to Minnesota just two days ago when they allowed 95 Gopher points.

It’s their first multi-game losing streak of the year, which is troublesome if you’re a Hawkeye fan. You need to be playing your best basketball as the calendar turns to March on Saturday.

Iowa is the fastest team in the Big Ten. IU has seen mixed results playing at a fast clip this year. Sometimes they look like those Phoenix Suns teams with Steve Nash at the helm, and sometimes they turn it over more than 20 times in a game.

But all these points are moot. Because there is only one question that really matters: which IU team will show up tonight?

IU is talented, no doubt. It lacks consistency, which makes it incapable of being a legitimate contender.

But one thing inconsistent teams can do is become giant killers and spoilers. IU plays to the level of competition. The Hoosiers can duel with the Hawkeyes in the talent department.

Can they play focused basketball for 40 minutes? Not every game, but today they will.

The bright lights. Nine o’clock game. ESPN. These are reasons why Assembly Hall will be rocking just as long as IU makes this a game.

Assembly Hall will be ready and the Hoosier nation will be there.

But which IU team will show up?

Prediction: Hyde 71, Iowa 65

Evan Hoopfer is 11-6 in predictions this year.

ehoopfer@indiana.edu
@EvanHoopfer