Anyone who watched the 2013-14 IU basketball season could identify two areas in which the Hoosiers absolutely needed to improve coming into this year: shooting and turnovers.
Shooting has been taken care of. So far, the Hoosiers are knocking down 43.6 percent of their threes this year. That number puts them in the top 15 in the country and is up from a measly 34.4 percent last year.
The team’s overall field goal percentage is also an impressive 51.3 percent. That’s increased from 44.8 percent last year.
The reasons for this are obvious: freshmen James Blackmon Jr., Robert Johnson and Max Hoetzel, plus junior guard Nick Zeisloft. The new additions in the backcourt can shoot and need to keep doing that. Junior guard Kevin “Yogi” Ferrell carried the team behind the arc last year but doesn’t have that pressure on him anymore.
That’s what makes this team so difficult to predict. Depending on if the threes are falling or not, IU could beat Pittsburgh tonight by 15 or lose by 20.
Turnovers, however, are a different issue. Few teams in the country were more frustrating last year than the Hoosiers, who turned it over 15.1 times per game. That ranked 329th in the country.
Of course, that’s been written about over and over as an easily identifiable problem for this team. But how has it fared through its first six games?
The Hoosiers are turning it over 12.3 times per game this year, which ranks them just inside the top 100 at 98th.
But they haven’t played a rigorous schedule up to this point. Only two of IU’s six opponents are ranked in the top 250 teams by kenpom.com : SMU and Eastern Washington, who are ranked 55 and 120, respectively.
In those two games, IU turned it over 20 times. A small sample size, yes, but not a bad start. Pitt doesn’t force a ton of turnovers, more than 10 per game, so if the Hoosiers end up giving away a lot of possessions, it will be their own fault.
It’s still very early to ?evaluate shooting and turnovers for this team, but it will be important to keep an eye on them during season. Those two lines in the box score will determine the outcomes of a lot of games this year.
If IU can out-shoot Pitt tonight and limit unforced errors, they shouldn’t have a big problem. Pitt’s sophomore forward Michael Young presents a matchup issue down low, but beyond that, IU should be able to contain everybody else.
The ACC/Big Ten Challenge tries to match up teams comparable in quality. It should be a close, entertaining game that could swing either way, but I’ll guess enough shots fall tonight for the Hoosiers.
My prediction: IU 75, ?Pitt 70
crkrajew@indiana.edu
