The IU men’s basketball team’s hope to extend its conference record to 3-1 tonight will be realized or shattered based on the performance of one player — D.J. Newbill.
It seems like the Penn State senior guard has had the reins of this Nittany Lion team for awhile. Ever since Tim Frazier was injured early in the 2012-13 season, Newbill has been “the guy” in State College, Pa.
He led the team in scoring that year with 16.3 points per game. The following season, he led the team in scoring again and was second in the Big Ten with 17.8 points per game. That was good enough to earn him a second-team All-Big Ten nod.
This year, he’s stepped it up again. Newbill is averaging 21.3 points per game — a number that leads the conference by more than two points.
Newbill gets to the line more than seven times per game, shoots high percentages considering his volume of shots, and plays more than 37 minutes per game.
The problem for the Nittany Lions is that they don’t have much else. No other player averages more than 10 points per game.
Their defense doesn’t do them many favors either. Penn State ranks No. 13 of 14 Big Ten teams in scoring defense. Who’s behind them? IU.
Because of that, don’t expect a lot of defensive pressure tonight from either team. There should be open lanes all over the floor and shooting space for IU’s snipers to knock down some threes.
Realistically, the Hoosiers shouldn’t have much of a problem taking over this game. KenPom.com ranks IU at No. 54, while Penn State sits back in No. 116. Newbill is the only player IU should worry about stopping, but even in games where he’s gone off, Penn State has struggled.
On Nov. 11, Newbill poured in 35 points on 14-of-33 shooting from the field in a loss to Charlotte. The game went to double overtime, but it’s still an impressive number.
When Penn State opened Big Ten play against Wisconsin, Newbill shot even better, going 11-of 18 for 29 points. But Wisconsin still won comfortably, 89-72.
IU should also be encouraged by some tournament buzz. After unexpected wins at Nebraska and against No. 22 Ohio State, CBSSports.com listed the Hoosiers as an 11-seed.
A lot of people didn’t expect that kind of attention after a tough-looking slate at the front of the conference schedule, but the Hoosiers have jumped in front of the curve, putting them in decent shape moving forward.
All that said, after watching Duke, Wisconsin and Arizona fall after each being ranked in the top ten, it’s a reminder that it’s never a good idea to overlook a conference opponent.
But when your opponent’s combined margin of victory against Cornell, Marshall, Duquesne and Drexel is just 12 points, I wouldn’t worry too much.
Prediction: IU 84, Penn State 70
Casey Krajewski is 6-0 in predictions this year.
crkrajew@indiana.edu
