Now that the IU men’s basketball team is ranked No. 23 in the country, every team in the Big Ten will be taking the Hoosiers seriously.
That includes No. 13 Maryland when the two meet tonight in Assembly Hall.
Other than the Louisville game, this will be the Hoosiers’ toughest test so far. The Terrapins have only lost at home to No. 2 Virginia and at Illinois, where the Hoosiers just picked up their fourth Big Ten win Sunday.
The key in that game for IU was neutralizing the Illini big men, and that won’t be different against Maryland. Illinois’ top non-guards, forward Nnanna Egwu and forward Leron Black combined to shoot 3-of-8 for eight points and 11 boards. But even more importantly, the two had nine fouls between them.
That was huge for an IU team without junior forward Hanner Mosquera-Perea.
Maryland is a three-headed monster of a team, with each head having different strengths. The first, guard Melo Trimble, is the team’s leading scorer. He and IU freshman guard James Blackmon Jr. might be the two best rookies in the Big Ten.
The second is Dez Wells, a senior who doesn’t have a defined position. Wells stands at just 6-foot-5, but weighs in at 215 pounds and does everything well. He’s made half of his 3-point attempts, but picks his spots. He’s only taken 24 this season. He averages 13.7 points, 4.9 rebounds and is a very effective defender.
Forward Jake Layman is the third head. However, standing at 6-foot-9, he is the most dangerous weapon the Terrapins will throw at IU. Layman leads Maryland in rebounds but can also pull his defender away from the basket and make the open three.
IU fans will get sick of hearing this during the next few weeks, but without Mosquera-Perea, the biggest determining factor in whether IU will win or lose will be how well they rebound and defend the opposing post players.
Penn State doesn’t have much of an interior presence, but they still found production down low to make the game closer than it should have been. The Hoosiers found success against Illinois because they were able to play good team defense down low and rebound as a unit.
However, that opened up the floor for Illinois’ guards to have big games. Sophomore guard Kendrick Nunn tore up IU for a game-leading 24 points. The bad news for IU: Melo Trimble is better than Kendrick Nunn. IU was able to pull out the win in Champaign, but they’ll have more trouble against Maryland.
IU will have to choose between taking away Trimble and Wells or Layman. If they limit the guards, Layman will beat them. If they stop Layman, Trimble and Wells will dominate.
Maryland will be too much for the Hoosiers. This is the second best team in the Big Ten and there’s a gap between them and third. I wouldn’t be completely surprised if IU finds a way to steal a win — crazy things happen in Assembly Hall — but I wouldn’t bet on it.
My Prediction: Maryland 74, IU 64
Casey Krajewski is 8-0 in predictions this season
@crkrajew@indiana.edu
