If there’s one team in the Big Ten nobody wants to face right now, it’s Northwestern.
Well, no. Nobody wants to face Wisconsin. But the Wildcats are near the top of the list.
Don’t be fooled by Northwestern’s 4-10 conference record — it is a decent team that is certainly capable of beating IU.
The Wildcats have won three consecutive games for the first time since December when they beat Western Michigan, University of Illinois at Chicago, Northern Kentucky and Rutgers.
This time around, the opponents were a little more impressive. The Wildcats topped Iowa, beat Minnesota on the road and then destroyed Penn State by holding the Nittany Lions to just 39 points.
Those wins broke a 10-game losing streak during which Northwestern experienced one of the most heartbreaking series of games I’ve seen a team go through. An overtime loss at Michigan State was followed by four losses by a combined 10 points, including at No. 14 Maryland.
So why are the Wildcats always in games against opponents better than them? The answer is simple. They play one of the slowest games in the country.
Of the 351 Division I teams, Northwestern has the 333rd-slowest adjusted tempo, according to kenpom.com. That means fewer possessions per 40 minutes than almost anyone else in the country.
That also means its opponents have fewer opportunities to pull ahead, keeping the Wildcats close.
That’s the opposite of what IU likes to do, which is run — a lot.
Throughout the past few games, the Hoosiers have been stalled in their half-court offense. It seems more and more often that IU is letting the shot clock run down to single digits, forcing it to heave up a bad shot.
Maybe opponents are keying in on how to stop IU’s set offense. Maybe it’s a mental thing. Regardless, IU is better when it pushes the tempo.
With the exception of an ill-advised behind-the-back pass out of bounds against Rutgers, sophomore forward Troy Williams has been the most improved Hoosier on the break this season.
Last season, the athletic Williams would speed past everyone and launch into a wild layup or dunk attempt that had little chance of going in, even if he wasn’t called for an offensive foul.
This year when Williams has the ball on the break, he’s slowed down enough to keep control of it and himself while still pushing the tempo. Now, most of those possessions end with a pass to the wing for an open three rather than a pile of bodies under the basket and the opponent grabbing a defensive rebound.
If the Hoosiers hope to go into Welsh-Ryan Arena and net a win from the surging Wildcats, they’ll need to force Northwestern to play faster than it wants. Whichever team forces the other to play its speed will win this game.
A small piece of good news for IU is that even though the game is away, it might feel more like a home game for them than Northwestern. Chicago is one of the largest hubs of IU alumni in the country and “Assembly Hall — North” will likely be more red than purple Wednesday.
Ten days ago, I would have picked IU to win by 15, but with the way Northwestern has played recently, I find it hard to pick the Hoosiers in this one. It will be close for sure, but it’s easier to slow a team down than speed them up.
My Prediction: IU 62 — Northwestern 65
Casey Krajewski is 14-3 in his predictions this season.
crkrajew@indiana.edu
