OMAHA, Neb. — College basketball is dominated by great guards – especially in March. Last season, we saw UConn guard Shabazz Napier almost single-handedly win the NCAA Tournament.
Centers and power forwards just aren’t usually developed enough to take over a game like a dominant guard can. Great teams start at the guard position.
The game between IU and Wichita State will showcase the best guard matchup of any game in the Round of 64.
Ferrell and VanVleet, Blackmon and Baker, Johnson and Cotton – those are the names that will dictate the outcome of Friday’s game.
Sophomore forward Troy Williams is also in the group, and while he’s listed as a forward, Williams often performs guard responsibilities. Williams can lead push the ball on the break and we even saw him play the point against Maryland.
The Shockers' big three – junior guards Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet and senior guard Tekele Cotton – match up well with IU. Freshman guard James Blackmon Jr. said they are some of the toughest defenders in the country.
“Their physicality [stands out], offensively and defensively,” Blackmon said. “They play really well together on offense. VanVleet knows how to get his guys open. And defensively they help each other out a lot.”
But while Wichita State has the advantage on defense, IU definitely shoots better from behind the arc. The Hoosiers shot 40.3 percent from deep this season, compared to 36.2 percent by the Shockers.
That’s not really bad — that number ranks No. 86 in the country — but their opponents are never in danger of getting beat behind the line. Instead, the Shockers will bully you into submission and if Indiana wants to win, they have to stand up to them.
“I feel like we know what we can do,” junior guard Yogi Ferrell said. “We showed it in the Big Ten Tournament. I felt like those two games we played desperate, so that’s what I’m giving off to these guys is to go out there and play desperate.”
There’s good news and bad news for IU. Wichita State is a really good team, but lacks a traditional post presence. IU has had success against teams like that this season, such as Maryland, who they played really well against three times.
That means IU’s post players don’t get terrorized down low and its guards can snag rebounds and create extra possessions for the Hoosiers.
The bad news, though, is that Wichita State is very under-seeded. They’re a No. 7 seed that deserves to be a No. 4 seed. If I’m a head coach, I would much rather play Georgetown, the South Region’s No. 4 seed, than Wichita State. The Shockers are good.
They’ve got more experience, possibly the most consistent point guard in the country in VanVleet, possibly the best on-ball defender in the country in Cotton, and Baker can do pretty much everything else.
Those three will limit IU’s perimeter scorers, so that means IU will have to work through the middle. It is still unknown whether junior forward Hanner Mosquera-Perea will play, but IU coach Tom Crean seemed confident in him.
“He’s responded every day, and there is no reason to believe that he’s not going to be available to play,” Crean said.
In practice on Thursday, Mosquera-Perea was dunking and did not look limited in any way, which is more good news for the Hoosiers.
However, Emmitt Holt could be the major contributor down low this time.
Holt is coming off his best two-game stretch of the season in the Big Ten Tournament. Against Northwestern and Maryland, Holt went 6-of-9 from the field for 14 points and pulled in 16 rebounds, nine of which were offensive. He also tallied three blocks and three steals over the two games.
If Holt plays like he did in the Big Ten Tournament, he could actually be a bigger problem for the Shockers than anyone on the perimeter. In fact, I think IU actually has an advantage down low with Holt, Mosquera-Perea, and Williams.
Those three are more dynamic than anything Wichita State will have down low, but the Shockers still control the advantage in the backcourt. And remember, that’s where college basketball games are won.
My Prediction: IU 64 – Wichita State 71
Casey Krajewski is 18-4 in his predictions this season.
