Five weeks ago, IU was comfortable. The Hoosiers were 15-4, winners of four straight games and finding ways to mask certain vulnerabilities. The toughest part of their schedule was almost finished — avoid being embarrassed in trips to Ohio State and Purdue, and they were on their way to a smooth finish to the regular season.
The NCAA Tournament spot was wrapped up. IU was regularly hailed as a dangerous team in postseason play. Things were going according to plan.
Then the Big Ten took its toll.
IU was beaten handily by both Ohio State and Purdue, then started on the kind of chaos-inducing run that makes the conference so competitive.
Escape with a win against Rutgers at home, get blown out at Wisconsin. Slide past Michigan, lose in the final minute at Maryland. Thump Minnesota, get bullied by Purdue. Cruise past Rutgers, stutter to a loss at Northwestern .
The Hoosiers haven’t won back-to-back games in more than a month. They’ve slid to seventh place in the conference, out of one of the four coveted double-bye spots in next week’s Big Ten Tournament. The NCAA Tournament spot that once seemed so certain isn’t yet in jeopardy but is a lackluster finish away from becoming an NIT berth.
For IU (19-10, 9-7), the solution seems simple: win at least one of its last two games, and the rest probably takes care of itself. Those two games will see Iowa and Michigan State — the two teams directly above IU in the Big Ten standings — come to Assembly Hall.
“It’s the last week of the regular season,” IU Coach Tom Crean said. “Two games at home. Final chances this year to play in front of the crowd ... We’re playing two teams that have been road-tested and won on the road.”
First up is Iowa, who IU has yet to play this season. The Hawkeyes (19-10, 10-6) are an anomaly. They aren’t elite on either end of the court, but they find ways to be effective — No. 23 and No. 67 in kenpom.com’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively.
Crean said Iowa’s biggest strength is its physicality and its ability to fight underneath the basket and control the transition game with speed.
“Physicality comes into it, mental toughness, speed and endurance,” Crean said. “They go. They really go. What they have is tremendous.”
Crean doesn’t like to describe any game as a must-win, saying he’d rather focus on each game as it comes than look at them on a larger scale. He’s said multiple times this season he doesn’t even know what the Big Ten standings look like.
So Crean isn’t worried about how these last two games will affect the end-of-season status for either his team or the conference as a whole. Or so he says.
“That doesn’t affect it at all,” Crean said. “We’re getting ready for Iowa.”
