There are just two games left on the schedule for the IU men’s basketball team, which means there are only two more chances for the Hoosiers to pad their resume for the NCAA Tournament.
And since they’re struggling right now, that need is becoming increasingly important.
The team that was a lock for the biggest postseason tournament just a couple weeks ago is no longer such a sure thing. IU will probably get in, but it’s still possible it will miss out.
The first thing IU needs to do is hold down Assembly Hall against Iowa, who passed IU in the Big Ten standings this weekend. IU needs this win, but it won’t be easy.
IU Coach Tom Crean knows it, too, and identified one of Iowa’s major strengths.
“They’ve got great runners, great striders,” Crean said. “The running ability of guys like Aaron White is just amazing. They just keep getting better.”
Though I don’t think IU will be outrun by Iowa, I do think Crean identified the biggest problem IU faces against the Hawkeyes.
White will be the key player in Tuesday’s game. He’s a veteran Big Ten player who has always reminded me of Cody Zeller or former Illinois center Meyers Leonard.
All are big men who move really well without the ball and are fast down the court. All three are also efficient on offense and know how to score in different ways.
As usual, IU has a size disadvantage that will be the biggest factor in the game. Stopping White and the stable of other Hawkeye big men will be critical to IU’s success, but the other key might be at the free throw line.
It’s a cliché that games are won or lost at the free throw line, but that could actually be true today.
In the Hoosiers’ last outing against Northwestern, they went 7-of-16 from the charity stripe for a pathetic 43.8 percent. Middle school teams shoot better than that.
I think it’s safe to assume that players were in Cook Hall working on their free throws this weekend, thanks to IU’s bye.
Iowa, on the other hand, is hot from the line. The Hawkeyes’ last game, an overtime victory against Penn State, was won at the free throw line. They went an incredible 25-of-27 (92.6 percent) on free throws.
That’s a high percentage, but getting to the line 27 times is even more amazing. Plus, 20 of those free throws were shot by White and senior center Gabriel Olaseni. That’s a team exploiting a size advantage if I’ve ever seen it.
And that will be Iowa’s plan again against IU. The Hawkeyes have a lot of depth in the post and won’t be afraid to be physical. They’ll trade fouls with the Hoosiers all game because IU lacks that depth.
Because of that, IU needs to play smart: exploit its advantages instead of trying to minimize its disadvantages. Though Iowa is one of the biggest teams in the Big Ten, IU has one of the best shooting teams in the country. Use that.
The Hoosiers are due to go off after a disappointing loss last time out.
However, Iowa is hot right now and IU isn’t. The Hawkeyes have won six of their last eight, and the Hoosiers have lost six of their last 10. These teams are going in opposite directions, and I don’t see that changing today.
Iowa is just too hot and too big.
IU isn’t.
My Prediction: Iowa 82, ?IU 72
Casey Krajewski is 15-3 in his predictions this season.
crkrajew@indiana.edu
