With the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA finals, I think the major factor on who will win the series will come down to how well the Warriors’ Draymond Green plays compared to the Cavaliers’ J.R. Smith.
It is expected LeBron James and Kyrie Irving will show up and be productive as well as the Splash Brothers — Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson — for the Warriors. What I believe will be the deciding factor for many of these games are what I like to call the wild card players like Smith and Andre Iguodala.
Smith has been known his entire career as a streaky scorer, and when he catches fire, Cleveland usually gets the win. He is averaging 14.4 points per game in this year’s playoffs, and, in game one of the Eastern Conference Finals, Smith popped off for 28 points. He shot 8-of-12 from the 3-point line that game.
The Cavaliers are going to need this type of production out of him this series, because when Smith gets in rhythm, he can get hot from the 3-point line pretty quickly. It is no secret the Warriors live by the 3, and Cleveland is going to need to keep up with the Warriors in scoring. Therefore, they are going to need Smith to keep them in the game at times.
James will not be able to score 37 points with 11 assists and 18 rebounds every game like he did in game three of the conference finals, so Cleveland is going to need players like Smith and Iman Shumpert to play at their best.
With all of the focus being on the Splash Brothers, I think people forget how valuable Draymond Green is to the Warriors success. He is averaging a double-double in this year’s playoffs with 10.8 rebounds and 14 points. If he can keep Tristan Thompson off the boards, that will be a major plus for Golden State. I also think for this series in particular he needs to average around 16 to 17 points per game.
This will be the series that Cleveland will miss Kevin Love the most. Although I do think the Cavaliers are a better defensive team with Thompson on the floor as opposed to Love, they lose the offensive production Love brings to the court. I don’t think Thompson will be able to compete with Green offensively, which could cause problems down the stretch.
Green makes a lot of hustle plays which do not make it on the stat sheet as well. He is the type of player that will get you an extra possession at the end of a game when it matters most.
The attention might be on the stars like James and Curry, but I think the real difference in this series will be how well the wild card players compete and if they show up in every game of the finals.
