Three weeks of the 2015-16 NFL season are in the books, and it has been an unusual start. The Colts, who were Super Bowl favorites, are 1-2. The Browns, Jaguars, Raiders, Buccaneers and Redskins all won on the same day for the first time in NFL history, and, after week three, seven teams are still undefeated.
Nevertheless, it’s been an exciting season to watch. Let’s take a look at my way-too-early NFL MVP candidates:
5. Andy Dalton
Through the first four years of his career, Dalton did just enough to make the playoffs. However, he has never won a playoff matchup. That can all change in 2015, as Dalton has seemingly elevated his game to a different level.
In the first three weeks, he has thrown for 866 yards, with eight touchdowns to just one interception. His 121.0 quarterback rating is good for second in the league.
Most importantly, he has his team off to a 3-0 start, with two wins coming on the road.
4. Rob Gronkowski
Life is always a lot easier when Tom Brady is throwing you the ball. Just ask Gronk.
When I watch Gronk play, I sometimes feel like it isn’t fair. His size, agility and graceful route-running are a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. Gronk has four receiving touchdowns on the year — almost half of Brady’s touchdown total — and is averaging 102.7 yards per game.
What jumps out the most is not his 308 yards, but the fact that he has only been targeted 28 times, compared to 10 other receivers who have recorded 35 or more targets, and has converted on 16 of them. He is making the most of his opportunities.
3. Julio Jones
Jones is having a record-breaking year to start the season. Not only are his Falcons 3-0, but he has played the biggest part in those wins.
His 440 receiving yards and 34 receptions are tops in the league thus far. If he plays like he has for the rest of the season, he will end up with 191 catches, 2,346 yards and 21 touchdowns. The first two would shatter NFL records (Marvin Harrison with 143 catches in 2002 and Calvin Johnson with 1,964 receiving yards in 2012).
2. Aaron Rodgers
If there’s one thing I have learned about Aaron Rodgers during the past few years, it’s that he doesn’t throw interceptions. Ever.
Not only did Rodgers become the second quarterback in NFL history to throw 10 touchdowns and no interceptions through the first three games, but he did it without his top receiver, Jordy Nelson. His 135.4 quarterback rating is leading all quarterbacks in the league, and it’s because, once again, he doesn’t throw interceptions.
The last time Rodgers threw a pick in the regular season was back in week 15 of the 2014 season. Here what’s most impressive: Rodgers has not thrown an interception at Lambeau Field since week 13 of the 2012 season.
1. Tom Brady
I think the rest of the league would now prefer Brady deflate his footballs, because the normal ones are making his game better, even if it’s hard to believe.
He is the first and only quarterback so far this season to surpass the 1,000-yard mark with 1,112 passing yards. His nine touchdowns are tied for second in the league, and his 119.6 quarterback rating is good for third in the league.
With exception to the passing yards, his numbers are not Rodgers’ numbers, but here is why Brady is the clear MVP winner if the season ended today.
Firstly, Rodgers does not have a number one receiver like Brady, who has Gronk and then several options at the number two spot in Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola.
Secondly, having to play in the NFC, Rodgers will be facing a conference stacked with the top defenses in the league, such as Minnesota, Carolina and Arizona.
Lastly, Brady is playing with a bit of a chip on his shoulder, even if he doesn’t say it. He wants to prove he can be a winner, even when the entire football world has their eye on him after Deflategate. I would look for Brady to throw the ball more than he ever has in his career this season. He already leads the league with 133 pass attempts.
micbhern@indiana.edu
