Going into Monday’s Iowa Republican Caucus, I feared Donald Trump would run away with the state. His momentum going into the caucus was undeniable.
He had the poll numbers. According to RealClearPolitics.com, aggregate poll data showed Trump had command of the Iowa polls since Jan. 11.
Sen. Ted Cruz had been winning from December 12, 2015, until that date. I didn’t think Trump’s withdrawal from last Thursday’s debate would hurt him too much, either. He seemed invincible.
That I was wrong is wonderful news for the GOP and the American people.
Sen. Ted Cruz’s victory in Iowa is a great development and will give hope for the party establishment — even if Sen. Cruz isn’t their favored candidate.
The implications of Sen. Cruz’s victory are astronomical.
With Sen. Cruz taking 28 percent of the vote, Trump with 24 and Sen. Rubio with 23, this indicates a three horse race for the GOP.
Poor numbers for candidates like Gov. Chris Christie, Dr. Ben Carson and Gov. Jeb Bush could signal the beginning of the end for these candidates.
Sen. Cruz showed great resiliency in his victory. He successfully staved off a late charge from Trump, and showed that having good organization and ground game would go further than having a flamboyant media presence, like Trump.
In his victory speech, Sen. Cruz highlighted this when he said, “Iowa has sent notice that the next president won’t be chosen by the media.”
In Trump’s post caucus speech, he said, “I love Iowa so much, I might even buy a farm here.”
The disparity in the post-caucus comments highlights the reason why establishment Republicans rue the idea of Trump as the GOP nominee or president. He simply doesn’t have what it takes.
Sen. Marco Rubio announced himself as the main establishment candidate with 23 percent of the vote. In aggregate Iowa polls leading up to the caucus, he polled around 16.9. He exceeded expectations. This should give him momentum moving forward as well.
Considering New Hampshire is less conservative than Iowa, this will bode well for Sen. Rubio’s campaign.
The bottom line is this. Trump’s momentum has stopped, at least for now. With New Hampshire up next on Feb. 9, this may be short lived, as Trump has a 21.7 percent lead, on aggregate, over the rest of the field.
One thing is certain. This election isn’t conventional.
In the last two elections, the GOP winners of Iowa, former Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Sen. Rick Santorum, have fallen off the pace after their victories. This could yet happen to Sen. Cruz.
However, this election is up for grabs. Americans know Trump isn’t invincible. The American electorate reigns supreme over the election, not the media.
Steven Aranyi
