Best Picture
If there’s any award on Sunday night that will have everyone on the edge of their seats, it’s Best Picture. While “The Revenant” has emerged as the recent frontrunner, it’s still a three movie race between “The Revenant,” “Spotlight” and “The Big Short.”
A win for Iñárritu’s bleak, gritty drama would mark him as the first director ever to win Best Picture two years in a row, which would be quite the feat. While the odds seem to be in his favor, it’s hard to rule out “Spotlight,” Tom McCarthy’s hard-hitting look at the Catholic church’s molestation scandal, uncovered by a team of Boston Globe reporters.
“Spotlight” was the frontrunner for the majority of the Oscar race but recently has lost major awards to the other two aforementioned films. “The Big Short” is probably Iñárritu’s strongest competitor, but it just doesn’t feel right to me.
My head is with “The Revenant,” but my heart is with “Spotlight.”
Will win: “The Revenant”
Should win: “Spotlight”
Best Director
It’s been an odd year in the Best Director category, with early frontrunners like Ridley Scott and Todd Haynes missing out on nominations altogether. While I was thrilled that Lenny Abrahamson of “Room” scored a nomination, his inclusion narrowed the race down to two: Alejandro Iñárritu and George Miller.
Both “The Revenant” and “Mad Max: Fury Road” will probably clean up the technical awards, and since the latter isn’t in the conversation for Best Picture, it’s reasonable to think that they may see fit to award Miller in this category. I, however, don’t see that happening.
No one has won Best Director twice in a row in the last 65 years, but I have a feeling that “The Revenant” mania will reign supreme and Iñárritu will take this category as well. Too bad, since Miller has deserved a win since his first round of “Mad Max” movies, and this one was better than the rest of them combined.
Will win: Alejandro Iñárritu, “The Revenant”
Should win: George Miller, “Mad Max: Fury Road”
Best Actor
Should the other four guys even bother to come? This category has been locked up for months, and it’s basically blasphemy to imply anyone other than Leonardo DiCaprio deserves to win (but here I go).
Bear with me on this — see what I did there? While Leo is obviously deserving of an Oscar, I think he’s being rewarded in the wrong year and for the wrong reasons.
Was he great as Hugh Glass, crawling his way back from the dead? Of course. I just think it’s far from his best performance and certainly not the best acting performance of the year.
The narrative about how hard “The Revenant” was to shoot has overtaken the narrative about DiCaprio’s actual performance, and there’s a reason it’s not called “Most Miserable Actor.”
I could write a book about why Michael Fassbender deserves to upset for his performance as Steve Jobs, but I honestly don’t think his career would survive the influx of hate that would come his way.
Fassbender will win another year — this one is Leo’s, and it really is about damn time.
Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”
Should win: Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”
Best Actress
This category is far and away the strongest of the year, with Oscar veterans like Cate Blanchett, Charlotte Rampling and Jennifer Lawrence facing off against the fresh faces of Brie Larson and Saoirse Ronan.
Ronan and Larson have led the race since the beginning, but Larson has won almost every major award thus far and will almost definitely take home the big one. While I absolutely adored Ronan in “Brooklyn,” Larson is completely deserving of this win. Her performance as Ma in “Room” was raw, honest and totally devastating.
Will win: Brie Larson, “Room”
Should win: Brie Larson, “Room”
Best Supporting Actor
Just how much did the Academy like “The Revenant”? The answer to that question will affect a large portion of the categories on Oscar night, Best Supporting Actor included. While Sylvester Stallone of “Creed” seems like the frontrunner, an influx of “The Revenant” love may score Tom Hardy his first win.
This category has been murky from the get-go, and other contenders including Mark Ruffalo, Christian Bale and Mark Rylance (the critical favorite) shouldn’t be overlooked.
Had the Academy seen fit to nominate Idris Elba for “Beast of No Nation,” he would have been the clear winner. In his absence, I’m going with Stallone.
Will win: Sylvester Stallone, “Creed”
Should have been nominated and then won: Idris Elba, “Beasts of No Nation”
Best Supporting Actress
This year, three supporting performances are competing against two lead performances: Kate Winslet, Jennifer Jason Leigh and Rachel McAdams versus Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara.
Vikander and Mara led the pack early on, but awards this season have been split between Vikander and Winslet. While the Swedish darling is still the agreed-upon frontrunner, Winslet’s Golden Globes and BAFTA wins give her the means to stage an upset.
While it seems unfair to say that Vikander’s lead performance trumps the other supporting performances, her poignant portrayal of artist and wife Gerda Wegner saved what was otherwise a mess of a movie. I didn’t love “The Danish Girl,” but I love Vikander in it.
Despite that, I have a feeling that this category will surprise people on Sunday, and Winslet will take it. Can the Academy resist awarding Leo and Kate on the same night? I’m betting not.
Will win: Kate Winslet, “Steve Jobs”
Should win: Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”
More predictions
Best Original Screenplay: “Spotlight”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Big Short”
Best Cinematography: “The Revenant”
Best Costume Design: “Cinderella”
Best Film Editing: “Mad Max: Fury Road”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: “Mad Max: Fury Road”
Best Production Design: “Mad Max: Fury Road”
Best Score: “The Hateful Eight”
Best Song: “Till It Happens To You” from “The Hunting Ground”
Best Sound Editing: “The Revenant”
Best Sound Mixing: “The Revenant”
Best Visual Effects: “Mad Max: Fury Road”
Best Animated Feature: “Inside Out”
Best Documentary Feature: “Amy”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Son of Saul”
Best Animated Short: “Sanjay’s Super Team”
Best Documentary Short: “Body Team 12”
Best Live Action Short: “Shok”
