It should come as little surprise to most political observers that I predict Hillary Clinton will win next Tuesday’s election.
I believe the “blue wall” — the 18 states and Washington, D.C. that have voted Democrat in every presidential election since 1992 — will come through for Clinton, apart from one district in Maine that I expect will vote for Trump, giving her 241 electoral votes.
From there, Clinton will win New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico, putting her over the line with 272 votes.
Clinton leads in Colorado by 4.5 percent, and the figure is nearly double in New Mexico and Virginia, according to Real Clear Politics.
With the exception of New Hampshire at 78.6 percent, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton a greater than 80 percent chance of winning every state I’ve mentioned thus far.
There seems to be little hope left for Trump supporters, who I also predict will say the election is “rigged,” but simple math proves otherwise.
In my estimation, a Trump presidency would require such a catastrophic failure on the part of every major polling institution that I’m quite confident it’s virtually impossible at this point.
However, I don’t expect Clinton to match the electoral success of her husband or her predecessor. Bill Clinton won both of his elections with no less than 370 votes and Obama with no less than 332.
Obama’s worst electoral performance would be Clinton’s best.
In the wake of the FBI announcing their “re-opening” of Clinton’s email investigation, an ABC News/Washington Post poll found that 34 percent of voters say this news makes them “less likely to vote for Clinton.”
While she doesn’t need them to win, this may adversely affect Clinton’s performance in the remaining swing states of North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Ohio and Iowa.
She leads in North Carolina by 2.9 percent, a number that’s risen steadily over the last few weeks, so I’ll count her a victory there.
Trump leads by 1.4 percent in Iowa, and while this figure is small, it probably won’t be possible to undo the lead he’s held there for months.
Clinton’s lead in Nevada is 1.7 percent and falling, she’s tied in Florida, up by 0.6 percent in Arizona, and down by 1 percent in Ohio.
The results of these four swing states is what will be most significant about the Electoral College this year.
If Clinton wins the presidency but loses Ohio, it’ll be the first time the state hasn’t voted with the winning candidate since Kennedy in 1960. The same is true of Florida, except the state broke its streak when it voted against Bill Clinton in 1992.
It’s worth asking why it’s been 56 years since a president has won the general election without the support of Ohio and what it’ll mean for the future if Hillary does it next Tuesday.
It’s also worth asking what it’ll mean for the GOP if the Hispanic populations of Arizona and Nevada, which have risen by 59 percent and 100 percent respectively since 2000, cement those states into the “blue wall.”
It’s clear this election will be particularly historic.
And it’ll be even more so if independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin beats Trump in Utah for its six electoral votes.
McMullin only trails by a few points, which could validate some third-party presidential bids in future races.
This might turn out to be a critical turning point in our nation’s political history.
@TherinShowalter
thshowal@indiana.edu
