For my last column in the IDS, I figured I’d write about my go-to topic: Senate elections. Looking ahead to 2018, there are several intriguing races and factors in play.
Let me preface the rest of my column by stating that the party that holds the presidency normally loses seats in midterm elections.
However, numerically, the GOP holds the advantage in 2018. They defend only two potentially vulnerable seats in Arizona and Nevada, while the Democrats can face several difficult challenges, particularly in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia. Other states could become particularly tricky if the GOP can recruit all-star candidates. One good example is Ohio, where Governor John Kasich is prevented by term limits from running for governor and is extremely popular.
One key factor that will contribute to the outcomes either way is the President Trump factor. If he exceeds expectations in his first two years as president, this could hand the GOP a much-needed boost that could negate the midterm effect I stated above.
I am most interested in the races in Indiana, North Dakota and Montana.
In Indiana, Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly will face a strong challenger, regardless of who emerges from the Republican primary. I’ve heard murmurs that Rep. Susan Brooks, R-5th District, is considering a run. Although the incumbency advantage will help Donnelly, I think Brooks could overcome it.
In North Dakota, incumbent Heidi Heitkamp will face a strong opponent if she remains in office. As a conservative Democrat, she is under consideration for a cabinet position as Secretary of the Interior or Energy. She is very qualified for Energy, considering she ran an energy company during her ten-year hiatus from politics. If appointed, and given she accepts the nomination, this seat would be an easy GOP hold. If not, this seat will be extremely competitive. Trump won the state by 36 points, and John Hoeven, GOP incumbent senator, won his reelection campaign by a staggering 62 points. It’s safe to say that if a strong GOP candidate, such as North Dakota at-large congressional district Rep. Kevin Cramer, decides to run for her seat, Heitkamp could face an uphill battle.
In Montana, incumbent John Tester may face a tough race from Montana at-large congressional district Rep. Ryan Zinke. Zinke would make the race very interesting, as he has a strong military background, which is not an area where Tester succeeds. Furthermore, Zinke has openly opposed Tester on many occasions, which would make this race feisty. Both Zinke and Tester have statewide name recognition, and Montanans aren’t opposed to voting for either party. This race will be incredibly interesting to follow moving forward.
I could see the GOP picking up between two and five seats in total, depending on the Trump effect and turnout. I’m truly intrigued by many races in 2018, and I am looking forward to seeing how they play out. The numbers favor the GOP. It’s time to capitalize.
staranyi@indiana.edu
@TweetsByAranyi
