This week the Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister of Scotland, announced to the world her plan to hold a referendum on the question of Scottish independence. While it has been postponed due to the terror attack in London on March 22nd, this issue will undoubtedly return soon. This comes less than three years after having a referendum on the same question. In the first referendum in Sept. 2014, more than 55 percent of Scottish people voted to remain a part of the United Kingdom.
During the 2014 campaign both the government of the U.K. and the government of Scotland agreed to respect the outcome of the referendum and that this was a once-in-a-generation decision. However, less than three years later, the Scottish government seems determined to drag its people back into another divisive national debate over the question of independence. The first minister’s reason for having another divisive national debate so soon after the last one is European Union.
The Scottish voters should not be led astray by Nicola Sturgeon and her Scottish Nationalist Party.
Last summer, the U.K. voted to leave the European Union by a narrow margin of with 52 percent voting for and 48 percent against. The results in Scotland were much more decisive. Sixty-two percent of Scots voted to stay in the EU, and every municipality in Scotland saw a vote in favor of staying in. Sturgeon argues that such a mandate to stay in the EU must be accounted for, and Scots should be given the choice to decide if they prefer to remain in the U.K. or in the EU because they cannot have both any longer.
The prime minister of the U.K., Theresa May, has threatened that the U.K. government at Westminster may veto the second referendum, as is in their power. May argues that autumn 2018 is not a fair time for Scots to decide because the U.K. will still be in negotiation with the EU over the terms of its departure. The Scottish people will not know all of the details of how U.K.-EU relations will look and therefore cannot make an educated decision about which group they would like to remain part of.
It is not even clear that an independent Scotland would be a member of the EU. In order to become a member state, all existing members must agree to any candidate’s membership.
The Spanish government has continually threatened to veto Scottish membership of the EU due to fears that it would motivate Catalan to vote to secede from Spain and become an independent country in the EU.
Furthermore, Sturgeon’s economic case for independence is severely damaged since the last referendum. The Scottish government argues that Scotland’s economy will suffer if it is forced to leave the EU single market.
However, having no barriers to trade with England, Wales and Northern Ireland, the other three nations in the U.K., is estimated to be worth four times more to the Scottish economy than being in the EU single market.
Furthermore, in 2014, the Scottish government’s economic plans were largely based on Scotland’s large oil resources in the North Sea; however, since then, oil prices have collapsed, and Scottish Nationalists have yet to explain how they will account for this loss of revenues in its budgets as an independent country.
Scottish voters must demand a second independence referendum not take place until they have had time to experience what their relationship with Europe will be like inside the U.K. after they have left the EU. The first minister should dedicate her energy to improving the schools and health services in Scotland rather than having such a divisive referendum less than three years after the last one and less than a year after the EU referendum will only further divide an already divided nation.
jusexton@umail.iu.edu
