IU has lived on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament for most of the season, bouncing in and out of bracket projections. After two ranked wins over then-No. 20 Penn State on Jan. 29 and No. 18 Iowa on Feb. 13, IU looked to be comfortably in the field of 68.
In the final four games of the season, IU has only won one game. The team beat Minnesota by five and squandered a likely clinching opportunity in a 60-56 loss to Wisconsin on Saturday.
IU head coach Archie Miller still believes the team is a lock.
“If you don’t put in a top-25 strength of record team with the wins that we have, you know, somebody is going to have to answer some questions,” Miller said after the game Saturday.
Miller is right in some respects.
The Hoosiers have the No. 13 strength of schedule, according to KenPom.com and have a handful of impressive wins against some of the top teams in the country. At times, IU has looked like a team that could play during the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
The biggest knock against the Hoosiers is that they've only played at a high level in Assembly Hall. As soon as IU steps onto any other court, it is a completely different team. There is a reason the NCAA Evaluation Tool and the NCAA selection committee weighs road and neutral site games so heavily compared to playing at home. The Hoosiers won’t have the comfort of Assembly Hall if they get selected for the tournament.
Instead, all IU can do is keep an eye on the projected brackets to see where the team might end up. However, If it was up to Miller he would get rid of all the click-bait bracketology shows.
“It's like when you watch 'Sesame Street' and you listen to the guys on 'Sesame Street', it's a children's show,” Miller said. “Every bracketology is a children’s show.”
Miller’s views on bracketology shows aren’t wrong. The shows are a joke and it still amazes me that people such as ESPN’s Joe Lunardi get paid six figures to make semi-educated guesses about the NCAA bracket. The best part is that they are rarely correct.
“But when you start to go through the bracketology and you listen to the 'Sesame Street' cartoon guys on TV who need people to click and do all this stuff, the bottom line is strength of record,” Miller said. “Who did you play, what did you beat.”
Miller’s belief that IU is in the tournament is optimistic.
IU sits at 19 wins. Since the beginning of the season, it likely needs 20 to reach the tournament, according to most analysts. That puts IU in a must-win situation on Wednesday in the Big Ten Tournament against Nebraska, which has lost 15 straight games.
If IU loses in the first round to either of those teams, the team doesn't deserve to make the NCAA Tournament. There are consequences for bad losses, and a bid to the tournament is a large one hanging over the Hoosiers.
One thing is for sure: What bracket analysts like Lunardi, fans or Miller believe doesn’t matter. The only opinion that matters is the selection committee’s on Sunday.
