With just two games remaining on the regular season schedule, No. 15 Indiana men’s basketball is locked in a four-way tie for second place in the Big Ten.
Depending on their results and the results of the rest of the Big Ten slate, the Hoosiers can fall anywhere from first to ninth in seeding come tournament time.
There’s a plethora of scenarios that could determine where along the line Indiana falls. Here are some of them, from best case to worst case and some in between.
Winning out for a double bye
By winning out, Indiana can clinch a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament, securing at least the No. 4 seed.
Currently, Indiana sits at 11-7, tied with Michigan, Maryland and Northwestern and a game ahead of three 10-8 teams in Iowa, Illinois and Rutgers. If Indiana wins both its remaining games — at home against Iowa on Tuesday and at home against Michigan on Sunday — the Hoosiers would finish with 13 wins in conference play.
That 13-win mark would guarantee that Indiana is out of reach of the 10-8 trio of teams. By beating Michigan, Indiana would also leave the Wolverines unable to reach 13 wins, promising itself at least a top-four finish.
Where the Hoosiers would fall within those top four seeds depends largely on the results of the rest of the Big Ten slate this week, but it still could include the No. 1 overall seed.
A share of the title and the No. 1 seed
Indiana’s victory Saturday prevented Purdue from claiming the Big Ten title — temporarily. The Boilermakers clinched a share of the trophy less than 24 hours later when Northwestern fell to Maryland.
Indiana not only delayed Purdue’s celebration, it kept its own slim hopes of a share of the title alive.
The Hoosiers would need a lot of help. Not only are they required to win both games this week against Iowa and Michigan but would need the Boilermakers to drop their road game against Wisconsin and their final home game against Illinois.
On top of that, to secure the first seed, Indiana would also need Maryland to drop one of its two road games against Ohio State and Penn State. Northwestern would also need to lose one of its games, either at home against Penn State or on the road against Rutgers.
Indiana lost its one game against Maryland and both games against Northwestern, meaning it would be seeded below both of them in the event of a tie in the conference standings.
A single bye, down to the No. 9 seed
If Indiana loses one of its games this week, the road to a double bye becomes much trickier. There remains a path if Indiana loses either of its games that relies heavily on the other top teams in the conference losing one or even both of their remaining games.
More than likely, if the Hoosiers drop a remaining game, they’ll be on the single bye side of the bracket. Michigan, Maryland and Northwestern can all secure double byes by winning out, joining Purdue as the top four teams in the bracket. An Iowa victory over Indiana could also propel the Hawkeyes into a top-four seed if they beat Nebraska later in the week as well.
In its worst-case scenario, Indiana drops both games this week, finishing the season 11-9 in the conference. The Hoosiers could drop all the way down to the No. 9 seed and would play the No. 8 seed in the first game of the second day of the tournament on March 9.
Follow reporters Evan Gerike (@EvanGerike) and Emma Pawlitz (@emmapawlitz) and columnist Bradley Hohulin (@BradleyHohulin) for updates throughout the Indiana men’s basketball season.
