A blitz of stories swarmed Indiana media last week showing many statewide elections in “statistical ties,” giving Democrats a fighting chance at winning races for attorney general and governor. On Tuesday, a different reality set in.
Last week’s poll of the attorney general race, sponsored and released by Democratic candidate Destiny Wells' campaign and Lake Research Partners, showed her earning 41% against incumbent Republican Todd Rokita’s 44%. With a margin of error of 4%, that meant the race could be considered statistically tied.
The poll showed the governor’s race even closer, with Democratic candidate Jennifer McCormick at 39% to Republican Mike Braun’s 41% — 9% of respondents said they would vote for Libertarian Donald Rainwater.
But on Tuesday, new independent polling from Emerson College Polling/The Hill showed Rokita gathering 49% to Wells’ 35%. McCormick was down 34% to Braun’s 45%, while 6% of respondents said they planned to vote for Rainwater.
And for the Senate race, which Wells’ campaign did not poll, Democrat Valerie McCray was at 33% to Republican Jim Banks’ 47%, while Libertarian Andrew Horning had 6%.
So, why the disparity? Diving into each polls’ crosstabs shows a much different picture.
Emerson’s poll sampled 1,000 voters from Sept. 12-13 by text and an online panel. The Wells campaign’s poll surveyed 600 voters by phone from Aug. 26 to Sept. 2. It’s not likely that the shift seen in the polls happened in 18 days.
There are some differences between each poll’s samples. Last week’s poll sampled a Hoosier electorate that was 51% Republican, 36% Democratic and 6% independent. But Tuesday’s poll found a 45% Republican, 32% Democratic and 23% independent.
And in the crosstabs, the numbers for the presidential race differ wildly. Emerson’s poll had Donald Trump up 17%, while Wells’ poll had him up 10%. Trump won Indiana by 16% in 2020, and national polls don’t indicate a huge shift leftward since then.
But Wells’ campaign pushed back on the Emerson poll’s results, dampening its momentum.
“This poll is exactly what should be expected in early fall, but the media is making it seem like these are groundbreaking numbers that show it’s over before it’s begun,” campaign spokesperson Hannah Smith said in a statement. “That’s plain irresponsible. Here’s some breaking news: Indiana isn’t a progressive state - it’s red! But let’s be clear, Republicans should be over fifty percent at this point and yet they’re running ten points behind. Democrats are over performing, and independent voters have yet to decide.”
It’s not impossible for state Democrats to win Indiana. The party has won tougher seats in redder states. Democrat Doug Jones won in Alabama in 2017 and West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin won as a Democrat in 2018. But those were midterms and off years.
Tuesday’s poll shows a massive uphill battle for Indiana Democrats, one they’ll need to reckon with as Nov. 5 inches closer.
