Indiana men’s basketball enters the 2024-25 season ranked No. 17 nationally despite missing the NCAA Tournament with a 19-14 record last year.
The Hoosiers’ roster is much different. Indiana added six transfers and freshman forward Bryson Tucker to its roster and lost three players to the transfer portal, two to graduation and one — center Kel’el Ware — to the NBA.
Expectations are high for Indiana head coach Mike Woodson’s fourth season.
But how will it play out? The Indiana Daily Student’s men’s basketball beat writers — reporters Daniel Flick and Quinn Richards and columnist Mateo Fuentes-Rohwer — make their best guess.
Most valuable player
DANIEL FLICK: Indiana big men have starred under Woodson, headlined by now-NBA players Ware and Trayce Jackson-Davis. Sixth-year senior center Oumar Ballo figures to be the next one. Ballo, who transferred to Indiana after spending three years at the University of Arizona, earned All-Pac-12 first-team honors each of the past two seasons and left the Wildcats as their all-time leader in field goal percentage at 64.6%. The 7-foot, 260-pound Ballo is proficient at blocking shots, rebounding and impacting games in underrated ways — while averaging at least 13 points per game the past two years.
QUINN RICHARDS: I agree that Indiana’s strongest piece this season will be in the frontcourt; however, my pick is junior forward Malik Reneau. As one of two Hoosiers to start all 33 games last season, Reneau is poised to be the flash to Ballo’s smash in the post. Don’t get it twisted, the Montverde Academy product can pose a dangerous force down low in his own right, but his footwork and floor awareness elevate his impact for the Indiana offense. Last season, Reneau averaged 2.7 assists and 15.4 points per game, all while playing alongside the aforementioned Ware.
MATEO FUENTES-ROHWER: To rebound from a disappointing 2023-24 season, Indiana needed to gain more production from the portal. Many eyes are on Oumar Ballo, but I believe redshirt sophomore guard Myles Rice will be the most valuable player on the squad. Woodson spoke at Indiana’s institutional media day Sept. 18 about the speed Rice brings to the lineup, one which lost Xavier Johnson to graduation last year. But Rice also provides scoring and playmaking, as he averaged 14.8 points per game on 43.9% shooting and dished out 3.8 assists per game last season for Washington State University.
Breakout player of the year
FLICK: This is a difficult question, because much of Indiana’s roster is comprised of proven commodities, whether it be in Bloomington or somewhere else. So, I'll take the road less traveled: A true freshman who hasn’t yet had the chance to break out but is certainly expected to this season. Freshman forward Bryson Tucker was a 4-star recruit in the 2024 class, and Woodson spoke highly of him during Hoosier Hysteria on Oct. 18. Tucker responded by nailing a pair of contested midrange jumpers while looking confident and assertive offensively. Yes, there will be growing pains, but Tucker is uber talented and could prove to be an integral part of the Hoosiers’ bench in his first collegiate season.
RICHARDS: It may be an odd choice on paper, but I’ll be taking the reigning Big Ten Freshman of the Year, sophomore forward Mackenzie Mgbako. Sure, his counting stats may decrease with more capable scorers in the Hoosiers’ offense, but it’s efficiency that will take the former 5-star recruit’s game to the next level. While Mgbako put up 12.2 points per game in an impressive freshman campaign, he shot the ball at a subpar 39.5% clip. The boost in scoring output from transfers like Rice and Ballo should allow the game to slow down for the 6’9 slasher, who will –– bold prediction –– rise to a lottery pick in the NBA draft.
FUENTES-ROHWER: It’s no surprise Indiana needed to improve its 3-point shooting from a season ago. Most of its transfers didn’t directly address that deficiency, but senior forward Luke Goode certainly did. His efficient 3-point shooting is a threat, whether he makes the shots or simply forces the defense to be aware of him. On top of that, his Big Ten experience from three years at Illinois will easily transfer over into whatever role he takes as a Hoosier.
Newcomer of the year
FLICK: Ballo is a smart answer here, as is Rice, but I’ll say senior forward Luke Goode. The Hoosiers’ lone Big Ten transfer, Goode arrived in Bloomington this summer after spending the last three seasons at Illinois. The Hoosiers were, to be kind, deficient from 3-point range in 2023-24. They ranked No. 353 out of 362 teams in Division I with 15.5 long-range attempts per game, and their 32.4% 3-point shooting rate placed No. 12 out of 14 Big Ten teams. Goode has never shot worse than 37% from distance, and he connected on 39.7% of his 3-pointers last season while averaging more than four attempts per game. His value from beyond the arc could be crucial for opening Indiana’s offense and providing better floor spacing.
RICHARDS: Indiana’s primary ball handlers last season were true freshman guard Gabe Cupps and senior guard Trey Galloway. Cupps averaged 2.6 points per game and Galloway is recovering from an offseason knee surgery. Therefore, my pick is the reigning Pac-12 Freshman of the Year Myles Rice. Rice’s blinding speed off the dribble and explosive first step provides Indiana with a threat on the perimeter Hoosier fans haven’t seen since Jalen Hood-Schifino declared for the NBA Draft in April 2023. Combine those abilities with a screener like Ballo and you have a dream pick-and-roll pairing for the former Washington State guard. Additionally, Rice ranked fourth in the Pac-12 with 1.6 steals per game last season, proving his quickness can be impactful on both sides of the floor.
FUENTES-ROHWER: Speed, speed, speed. Similar to Myles Rice, sophomore guard Kanaan Carlyle brings a new level of quickness to the Indiana backcourt. His numbers from a season ago weren’t outstanding, but a 32% 3-point percentage and 77% shooting from the line are both solid numbers that could see serious growth with a second year of experience. More important than stats, however, is Caryle’s ability to provide more depth in a guard spot that felt thin last year, especially following the injury to Xavier Johnson.
Game of the year
FLICK: The cop-out of all cop-outs — I’ll be going with Indiana’s home game against Purdue on Feb. 23. It’s the second meeting between the two sides this season, and the Hoosiers will have only four more regular season games remaining thereafter. Rivalry aside, if Purdue lives up to its preseason top 15 ranking, the matchup presents an opportunity for Indiana to build its resume for March Madness. But, of course, it’s Indiana and Purdue. It’s the state’s biggest rivalry, and one of the best in all of college basketball. Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall will be loud, and stakes will be high. This game should be circled on every Cream and Crimson-colored calendar.
RICHARDS: With Daniel taking the easy way out with the Boilermakers, I’ll opt to highlight an early-season home matchup with the University of South Carolina on Nov. 16. Although the Gamecocks aren’t ranked in The Associated Press preseason poll and lost key pieces, they posted a 26-8 record last season and ended as No. 6 seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament. Reigning SEC Coach of the Year Lamont Paris is entering his third season at the helm and has quickly turned the program around in his tenure. With a pair of mid-majors on the Hoosiers' schedule to start the year, South Carolina should be the first benchmark for an Indiana team looking to prove itself as a national contender.
FUENTES-ROHWER: Over the offseason, Michigan hired Dusty May to fill its head coaching vacancy after firing Juwan Howard. A native of Terre Haute, Indiana, May was a student manager under head coach Bob Knight at Indiana from 1996-2000. Now as head coach of the Wolverines, he’ll have the opportunity to return to Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Feb. 8 with a new look lineup built through the transfer portal, similar to Indiana this season.
Postseason predictions
FLICK: The Hoosiers haven’t made it past Round of 32 under Woodson’s guidance, but I think they have a real chance to change this year. Indiana has lots going for it on paper, from size and guard play to shooting and depth. The challenge stems from putting all the pieces together, a task I think Woodson and his staff are capable of handling. And ultimately, I think Indiana will reach the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. The Sweet 16 is a strong possibility, but Indiana has Elite Eight potential. The deciding factor will be how well Myles Rice, Kanaan Carlyle and Trey Galloway shoot the ball from a distance. If at least two are proficient, Indiana can make a deep run.
RICHARDS: With an experienced roster and balanced scoring attack, Indiana has all the makings of a team that could make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. The question remains how well an entourage of key transfers can synchronize with a supporting cast of returning Hoosiers. Fortunately, March Madness isn’t until (you guessed it) March, which should give a new-look roster time to conquer early-season growing pains. I fully expect Indiana to be rolling once the NCAA Tournament field is set and reach the Sweet 16 for the first time in Woodson’s tenure. While a run to the Final Four is possible with proven talent across a deep roster, I’m not comfortable projecting that level of success until I’ve seen the Hoosiers play in clutch time games throughout conference play.
FUENTES-ROHWER: It’s impossible to tell where a team will end up at the beginning of a season, especially in college basketball where March Madness is famous for its unpredictability. However, I feel it’s worth arguing that this Indiana squad, on paper, is a team that could reach the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. With more experience all around, especially at the critical point guard position, I believe Indiana will at least make a Sweet 16 appearance.
Follow reporters Daniel Flick (@ByDanielFlick) and Quinn Richards (@Quinn_richa) and columnist Mateo Fuentes-Rohwer (@mateo_frohwer) for updates throughout the Indiana men’s basketball season.
