We’re entering an increasingly incalculable, multipolar world with an unpredictable president, experts say.
But in the face of all the uncertainty, what do IU experts say President-elect Donald Trump’s policy toward the world will look like?
Mike Pompeo, secretary of state during Trump’s first term, was not chosen again. But he went on the record with the Indiana Daily Student at the Republican National Convention in July, granting some insight on what Trump could be coming in with.
“The Chinese, the Russians, the Cubans, the Venezuelans, the Iranians, they’re all working together against our idea of freedom and liberty, and we gotta win,” he said.
Trump’s picks for his administration are already shaping up — he announced his pick of Marco Rubio for secretary of state.
John Karaagac, an IU professor at O’Neill with expertise in international relations, described Rubio as a “China hawk” and said his appointment could mean an increase in focus on governments in Latin America that China has developed closer ties to in recent years.
China’s economic and military power are booming, presenting an existential threat to America’s superpower status. Karaagac said the United States under Trump will likely embrace a multipolar world.
“We are in a world of great power competition and a world of great powers,” he said.
Karaagac said Trump’s foreign policy will likely emulate President Richard Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s of the 1970s. He compared prior American policy to the student who does all the work in a group project. Under Trump, he predicts that the country will move away from that position.
So a multipolar world it is. But he said the approach is risky — high payoffs if done well, high costs if not.
Kissinger died one year ago, with a legacy of efficacy among some foreign policy analysts and of death in many countries.
“For his time, he got it mostly right, but many of the ideas that he had in the 1970s, they just don’t hold in the world as it exists today,” Pompeo said in July — mostly regarding Kissinger’s rapprochement with China.
An end goal in Ukraine
Among Trump’s most forthright policies is seeking an immediate end to the Russo-Ukrainian war. The war is the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II. Roughly one million people in both countries are estimated to be dead or injured.
Ukraine recaptured much of its territory from Russia’s botched initial invasion but is losing ground consistently now. The war will enter its third year in February. President Joe Biden, on Sunday, authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-made long-range missiles for strikes on Russia.
So where does that leave Trump?
Karaagac said the situation will make Trump’s administration seek a deal to end the war as soon as possible.
How does Trump do that? Dina Spechler, an IU professor specializing in foreign policy, said it could look like withholding or halting military aid — or pressuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy with the threat of doing so.
The conflict’s third year has made Ukraine’s fatigue more pronounced, Karaagac said. European nations and the U.S. are glad that Ukraine hasn’t lost its sovereignty, he said, but the long timeline is making a diplomatic solution more likely.
“It's not as if Kyiv has lots of options at this point,” Karaagac said.
However, Spechler said she’s not convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin will face pressures to end the war on his end.
“The Russian public, as far as we know, and we don't know a whole lot, isn't that excited about this war,” Spechler said. “But on the other hand, Russian troops are paid very well, and it's been a major source of income for Russians all over the country.”
That could make peace a hard sell. Spechler said she doubts Russia will withdraw from the nearly 20% of Ukraine that it has captured. NATO membership will be a major point of contention as well. Ukraine will likely not immediately join the alliance, Spechler said, but there’s a possibility it would be promised in future years.
Karaagac said the peace would leave no parties involved happy. He’s also unsure NATO members will have an appetite for Ukrainian membership, as it could effectively promise the alliance would go to war with Russia if future conflict arose.
Growing conflict with China
The undercurrent is conflict with China. Trump’s implementation of tariffs has seen continuation under Biden, but Trump has threatened to balloon the levies. Spechler said that would mean retaliation from China.
“There's no question that a tariff war with China would hit American consumers very hard,” she said.
That could impact Indiana — an agriculture and manufacturing-heavy state with growing exports — in particular. Federal data shows an almost $9 billion rise in Indiana’s exports between 2022 and 2023 — for a total of more than $54 billion in exports last year.
The tariffs themselves and potential backlash could make goods more expensive. And depending on the industry, foreign-made components’ costs could rise in manufacturing.
Another major tension point with China is Taiwan, a vital node of the world’s economy, largely through high-tech chip research and output. Both Spechler and Karaagac said they don’t see China invading Taiwan during Trump’s term.
“I see low-grade competition rising,” Karaagac said. “Definitely on economic issues, definitely on issues of technology, definitely on naval issues, maritime issues.”
The Israel-Hamas war and regional conflict
Trump’s first term saw the United States recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and work on negotiating normalization between Israel and several Middle Eastern countries. The Israeli military has killed nearly 44,000 Palestinians after the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attack killed about 1,200 people in Israel. Around 100 hostages are still in Gaza, with about a third believed to be dead.
The war has expanded on several other fronts. Israel has dismantled Hezbollah’s leadership in Lebanon and begun an incursion into the country, and has also struck targets in Iran, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Trump has said he wants to see an end to the war as soon as possible — but has put out conflicting messages on how. A negotiated end may be difficult, Spechler said, because she doesn’t think Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is ready for a peace.
"But I wouldn't rule it out because Trump doesn't like throwing money into wars,” she said.
Trump’s cabinet picks are overwhelmingly pro-Israel. Karaagac said Trump will likely seek peace on Israel’s terms, without escalating toward war with Iran. However, he said the United States will likely treat Iran as more of a pariah state than it has under Biden, largely meaning more sanctions.
Spechler said that she sees conflicting indications on what attitude Trump will take on Iran.
“Trump apparently talked just to Netanyahu three times since he was elected,” she said. “That's more than any other world leader, and they apparently talked about Iran and apparently see eye to eye.”
As for Israel, Spechler said, it’s unclear whether the country is interested in escalating with Iran.
And for an end to Israel’s siege of Gaza and incursion into Lebanon, it’s still unpredictable what approach Trump will take. Spechler said it’s possible Trump will try to negotiate an end to the conflict, making a “deal of the century.”
What that would look like is, as with most items, unclear.
