I have a perpetual love-hate relationship with the Oscars. Every year I watch the awards ceremony and inevitably get angry at the Academy for undeservedly obsessing over certain films and snubbing others. I can only stand so much of the hosts’ cheesy one-liners about star life in Hollywood or the movies that got the most critical nods that year. But, at the same time, I can’t look away either — it is the Oscars, after all, and, whether we despise the Academy or not, they’re an influential bunch.
And, really, despite everything, the Oscars ceremony is just fun: there’s a reason the awards season is such an integral part of our popular culture.
With that being said, and in the interest of total disclosure, I have yet to see every film I mention here. But no matter. It needn’t take a thorough viewing of “Anora” or “The Brutalist” to know the Academy must love them and that winning major awards at the Golden Globes and the Cannes Film Festival only increases their chances of taking home the gold in March.
I’ve chosen to highlight only a few categories here, just the major ones. As such, my predictions will focus on Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor and Actress, and Best Supporting Actor and Actress. I’ll expand on my list for each category, and try my hand at predicting which film will, ultimately, win. I’ll probably be very wrong — frankly, I’d be surprised by anything else.
Best Picture
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Wicked”
If I had to lay money on it, I’d probably single out “The Brutalist” as the film most likely to take home the award. It’s everything the Academy loves: an epic historical drama, well over three hours long, that centers around the complexities of the American Dream. It also won the award for best drama picture at the Golden Globes, which only helps.
I wouldn’t rule out “Conclave” or “Anora” either, especially the former. “Anora” has the benefit of having won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, but “Conclave” is another political drama that’s likely to be an Academy favorite.
Best Director
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Edward Berger, “Conclave”
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Jesse Eisenberg, “A Real Pain”
James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
With few exceptions, the Academy Award for Best Director almost always goes to the filmmaker behind the Best Picture. While this “rule” isn’t entirely carved in stone — Jane Campion won for “The Power of the Dog” in 2022, a film that won no other awards at the show — I’m going to make the safe bet and say Corbet has the highest chance of winning. There’s also always a chance Baker runs away with the award; at the same time, I’d love to see Eisenberg, a noted Bloomingtonian, win as well.
Best Actor
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Daniel Craig, “Queer”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
It’s perhaps a wild guess, but every fiber of my being is telling me that Timothée Chalamet is a valid frontrunner for this category. His and Sebastian Stan’s performances are maybe the most intense here — intense as in their ability to totally transform into another human being — but I foresee the political controversy of the latter’s performance as Donald Trump getting in the way of it winning.
Nevertheless, it’s also likely the Academy will vote for a more understated performance, in which case I’m fairly confident in Ralph Fiennes or Adrien Brody.
Best Actress
Pamela Anderson, “The Last Showgirl”
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Karla Sofia Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Demi Moore, “The Substance”
The realistic scenario here is that the award goes to Mikey Madison — and don’t get me wrong, for good reason — but I want to take a moment to go out on a limb. If my prediction for best actor was wild, then this one might be completely ridiculous: I think there’s a better than terrible chance we might see Pamela Anderson win in an upset victory. I would honestly love if this were the case: Anderson’s performance in “The Last Showgirl” was a marvel, and she would absolutely deserve the award.
Best Supporting Actor
Yora Borisov, “Anora”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
Guy Pierce, “The Brutalist”
Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
In line with my prediction for the best actor category, I’m going to roll the dice for Edward Norton — an aging legend. His performance as Pete Seeger felt like a later-career highlight. However, I also wouldn’t be surprised if Kieran Culkin takes the award either. He’s gained a lot of traction in recent years, not least because of HBO’s “Succession,” and his nomination would certainly be a popular favorite.
Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
Jamie Lee Curtis, “The Last Showgirl”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Margaret Qualley, “The Substance”
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Out of these actors, I’m thinking Ariana Grande might, just might, be the big winner. It could be a bit of an unconventional choice, but her performance in “Wicked” has received nothing but rave reviews since its release. A safer guess might be Isabella Rossellini, daughter of famed film director Roberto Rossellini and actor Ingrid Bergman, who has made her own mark on the industry for over 40 years, but I’m fairly confident in a left-field selection here.