INDIANAPOLIS — Anthony Leal looked to the ground and scratched the back of his head while he sat on Indiana men’s basketball’s bench. The fifth-year senior guard rose to join the huddle with the five Hoosiers on the court for a timeout, but the usual claps and high-fives throughout the squad were non-existent.
Reality was starting to set in.
Indiana faced an 11-point deficit to Oregon, only minutes removed from a far more manageable 2-point margin. But following Jackson Shelstad’s basket, 2 of his 18 total points the sophomore guard scored in the contest, the Hoosiers’ Big Ten Tournament hopes were on the precipice of disaster.
It was only nine days ago when Indiana and Oregon last met, albeit in different circumstances. However, the way it played out was very nearly identical.
In the second half of the game March 4 in Eugene, Oregon, the Hoosiers kept pace with the Ducks, only faltering in the final few minutes. Oregon finished on a 10-0 run, securing the 73-64 win.
Thursday’s matchup was much of the same. The first half ended with a 10-0 Ducks run, and despite a tight affair for most of the second 20 minutes, Oregon closed the game with a 16-5 surge, snagging the 72-59 victory inside Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
Indiana failed to generate consistency in any aspect of its performance — an amalgamation of its entire season.
In the first half, sophomore forward Mackenzie Mgbako netted 7 points on a perfect 3-for-3 shooting. But foul trouble kept his minutes to a premium, and he only managed 5 points on 2-for-7 shooting in the second half.
Similarly, fifth-year senior guard Trey Galloway scored 5 points on 2-for-9 shooting in the first frame, yet he had 10 on a 4 for 9 clip in the second frame.
“You’ve got to give Oregon and their group a lot of credit because they came all the way across the country, and they played great tonight,” Indiana head coach Mike Woodson said postgame. “It’s a tough loss. I thought we competed in stretches, but we just couldn’t finish it.”
The Big Ten Tournament was never Indiana’s final goal but leaving it without a win makes its chances of clinching an NCAA Tournament berth much more difficult. Woodson made his case to the selection committee, citing his team’s recent success.
“I think we’re playing some of our best basketball,” he said. “This afternoon wasn’t an indication of how we’ve been playing. We’ve been very competitive.”
This might all well be true, and it’s important to play your best basketball in March, but recency bias isn’t an indicator of deservedness in the Big Dance. Which is why Indiana’s loss to Oregon coupled with its quality victories over the past six weeks puts the selection committee in a predicament.
And why the Hoosiers are likely not going to make the NCAA Tournament.
Deservedness is impossible to differentiate amongst different teams with different resumes in difference conferences. And truthfully, Indiana has the makings of a team that belongs in March Madness.
“We know that we should be a tournament team,” Galloway said. “I think just those crucial losses that we had were just so tight, one-possession games. The way we’ve been playing the last month and a half, we’ve been playing like a tournament team.”
Indiana managed wins over Michigan State and Purdue, teams that are 10th and 15th in the NCAA NET rankings, respectively. Those close defeats Galloway alluded to include a 1-point loss to Maryland, which is ranked 11th in the NET, and a 4-point loss to UCLA, which is 23rd in the NET.
Further improving their resume, the Hoosiers have zero defeats against non-Quad 1 opponents. The flip side of that coin is they have had plenty of opportunities to take advantage of their challenging schedule, and their 13 Quad 1 losses signal a failure to do so.
However, many of Indiana’s adversaries have also failed to cement themselves as “tournament teams.”
The Hoosiers are the last team in the “Last Four In” group, according to ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi on Thursday afternoon. Xavier University was also a part of the four-team group, but it fell to Marquette University in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament.
Boise State University and Colorado State University, two teams in the “First Four Out” category, are still yet to play. The University of Texas at Austin are also in that group, with a matchup against Texas A&M University in the Southeastern Conference Tournament.
The only guarantee for Indiana over the next four days is that other teams will decide their future, beginning as early as Thursday night. And for Woodson, it means that much more as he’s set to depart the program at the end of the season.
But he’s not ready to think about that, much less about himself.
“All I’m concerned about is the players,” Woodson said. “It’s been a good run since I’ve been here, and I’m just hoping that it’s not over yet.”
Ultimately, opportunities presented themselves for the Hoosiers, and they continuously failed to grasp them. While many inside the locker room feel they are a tournament team, they’ll only have themselves to blame if a March Madness berth isn’t in their future.
And with one last, fitting defeat in a Quad 1 contest, that very well could be the case.
Follow reporters Daniel Flick (@ByDanielFlick) and Quinn Richards (@Quinn_richa) and columnist Mateo Fuentes-Rohwer (@mateo_frohwer) for updates throughout the Indiana men’s basketball season.
